Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 072005
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

NEC031-161-072030-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-060907T2030Z/
SHERIDAN NE-CHERRY NE-
204 PM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY AND EAST CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTIES...

AT 201 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCK HILL...OR ABOUT 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF GORDON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF MORGAN LAKE BY 230 PM MDT...

HAIL UP TO NICKLE SIZE IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED 7 MILES SOUTH 
OF GORDON WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE 
STORM...TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4286 10216 4274 10233 4241 10196 4261 10177

$$

JWS

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 072033
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

NEC031-161-072039-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0247.000000T0000Z-060907T2030Z/
SHERIDAN NE-CHERRY NE-
229 PM MDT THU SEP 7 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY AND EAST
CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 230 PM MDT...

AT 230 PM MDT...NORTH PATTE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM 
THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SHERIDAN AND WEST CENTRAL 
CHERRY COUNTY HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. HOWEVER...A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM CONTINUED TO BE LOCATED IN SOUTHWEST CHERRY 
COUNTY...ALONG HIGHWAY 61 ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF MERRIMAN...MOVING 
SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

LAT...LON 4286 10216 4274 10233 4241 10196 4261 10177

$$

JWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
409 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND UPON THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
THEN MAKE WAY INTO THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF...
NOGAPS...AND THE GFS CONTINUE SIMILAR PROJECTIONS WITH BAROTROPIC
LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HUDSON BAY...RIDGING ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA
AND SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHEAST IN THE NEAR
TERM. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED TODAY THEN IS SEVERLY
UNDERCUT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRONG SYSTEM DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT THAT
WILL FURTHER WEAKEN UPPER RIDGE AS ENERGY MOVES SOUTHEAST IN SPLIT
FLOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WEST. ATTM SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUD COVERAGE TO THE WEST WITH WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT TO LIMIT
EASTWARD EXTENT TODAY WITH OVERALL PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOW 80S.

THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE
HEATING WILL HELP INCREASE INSTABILITY INTO THE AFTERNOON. STEEPENING
H7-5 LAYER LAPSES RATES NEAR 8 DEG/KM ARE SHOWN AS CAP ERODES AND
CAPE VALUES RISE BETWEEN 800 TO 1100 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING.
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH ON THE HIGH PLAINS BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE
LIKELY TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION. STORMS
THAT MAY FORM SHOULD BE HIGH BASED BEARING A WIND THREAT INTO THE
EVENING WITH LOW POPS RETAINED AS SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST. BY MIDNIGHT CAP STRENGTHENS WITH ANY CONVECTION TO
DECAY OR DISSIPATE WHILE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FORECAST AREA.

FRIDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTH TO ACROSS NEBRASKA AND BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS GOOD FRONTOGENTICAL
FORCING OCCURS ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER CLOSED OFF LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS COLORADO. COMBINED LIFT AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
GFS GENERATING QPF WELL INTO TUESDAY IN LATEST RUN. RAISED POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO OCCUR AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN CONVERGENT
UPSLOPE PATTERN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
LIMITED CHANGES TO DAYS 4 AND 5 AS PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED IN
THE LONG TERM.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1149 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-081615-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
1149 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006 /1049 AM MDT THU SEP 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE WIND PROFILES AND ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE FRONT COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS THE FRONT STALLS ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS... THERE IS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KAR