Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z LAPS SHOWS MOST OF THE CWA WITH AT LEAST 100 J/KG CIN. LOWEST
VALUES IN THE NW WITH NEAR ZERO ACROSS SW SD. IR SHOWS MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NIOBRARA RIVER. WV SHOWS DRY
AIR PUSHING STEADILY SE AT AROUND 15KT. MSAS ANALYZES A MESO HIGH
CENTERED NEAR KANW. SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
ZONES...WITH OBS AT 20Z INDICATING 95/36 WITH NW WINDS AT KSNY AND
91/52 WITH ESE WINDS AT KOGA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE THE FIRST ISSUE.
NAM SOUNDINGS AT KVTN INDICATE SB CONVECTION COULD OCCUR WITH NO
CIN BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL HAVE TO GET INTO THE MID 90S FOR THIS. CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME TSRA WHICH WOULD INITIATE A S/WV.
THIS WOULD THEN TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON NW FLOW AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL. AMOUNT OF MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY PROVIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE. WITHOUT HIGH
SB CAPES...IDEA IS THAT WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE.
SHOULD CONVECTION MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST ZONES...INSTABILITY THERE
THE GREATEST WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE INTO MORE LIKELY SEVERE. MODELS
ALL PROG CONVECTION TO DIMINISH NEAR MIDNIGHT. DRY AIR EVIDENT IN
TIME HEIGHTS AND MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE TRANSLATES INTO FOG
CHANCES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG DOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE...SO A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS THE SITUATION
UNFOLDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS IN THE MOUNTAIN TIME ZONES APPEAR
MUCH LESS LIKELY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG. FOCUS TURNS TO
CONVECTION CHANCES TOMORROW. WENT CLOSER TO THE NAM
SOLUTION...DESPITE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL...AS
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE PANHANDLE WEAKENING
THE CAP AND INITITATING A FEW STORM SEEMS REASONABLE. LIMITED POPS
TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING
ANYTHING TO THE REST OF THE CWA AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO
LACK OF A SURFACE FORCING. INSTABILITY WILL BE THERE...POSSIBILY
AROUND 3K J/KG...SO QUESTION WILL BE AMOUNT OF CIN. WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST THEN TURNS HOT AND
WINDY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WHETHER CONVECTION DEVELOPS DURING THE AFTERNOON
LOOKS TO BE A CHALLENGE. FOR THAT REASON NO UPGRADE OF POPS MADE.
GFS IS DRY THROUGH 00Z. IF FRONT LAGS AS GFS PROGS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT...BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW NO ADJUSTMENT TO POPS MAINTAINING AROUND A 30 POP UP
NORTH. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE SUNDAY...WITH
BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
LEADS TO COOL WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED NEAR 80. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS
TO BE THE COOLEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEREAFTER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD BRING TEMPS BACK TO CLIMO AND INCREASE
CHANCES FOR TSRA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
341 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-112045-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
341 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 /241 PM MDT THU AUG 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2. THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE  MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK

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