Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 092029
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2006

NEC171-092100-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-060809T2100Z/
THOMAS NE-
329 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THOMAS COUNTY...

AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 140...OR ABOUT NEAR THEDFORD...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 220 BY 340 PM CDT...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4205 10080 4175 10081 4178 10028 4207 10030

$$

JWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
312 PM CDT WED AUG 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
WV PLACES A S/WV OVER CENTRAL MT...WITH SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO NEB. PRESSURE CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
THE STATE. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S AT KLBF...BUT UPPER 30S
NOW AT KIBM. KLNX RADAR IS STILL DOWN WITH NO KNOWN TIMEFRAME FOR
A FIX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY AND
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT WITH KLBF 18Z
SOUNDING INDICATING OVER 6K J/KG. LAPS INDICATING ABOUT 25KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR...WITH HIGHER VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. 18Z SPC
SOUNDING ANALYSIS CONFIRMS THIS WITH 28KT AT KLBF. AT THE
SURFACE...STREAMLINES INDICATE CONVERGENCE FROM THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS SOUTH THROUGH WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. DRY BULGE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WITH KOGA NOW 100/46. THIS SCENARIO IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
NAM 12Z MODEL RUN. IN ADDITION TO SURFACE FORCING...MAIN ACTIVITY
FROM THIS MORNING ON HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE H3 JET. THIS HAS
SPARKED ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...AND THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IS NOW BEGINNING TO INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE KLBF CWA ENVIRONMENT. CIN HAS ERODED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AS OF 19Z. END RESULT IS TSRA CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH EHI
2.4 AND GREATER IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ZONES. IN STORM ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH LESS
LIKELY THAN ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE IN HIGH CAPE. ACTVITY SLIDES EAST
OVERNIGHT AND EXITS BY MORNING. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
WITH KI OVER 33. TSRA INITIATION LESS CERTAIN TOMORROW...WITH
MODELS INDICATING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCES.

IN THE LONG TERM...NORTHERN STREAM GENERALLY STAYS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. INTRUSION OF LOWER HEIGHTS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING BEING LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT MONDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 7
DAY FORECAST. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED MONDAY TEMPS TOWARDS
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TSRA WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY AS S/WV WORKS THROUGH MT. GFS SHOWS STRONG BL
FROGEN...INDICATING THAT THE SURFACE FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND
STRENGHTEN AS CONVECTION OCCURS. RESULT IS MCS CHANCES SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DAYTIME SLIGHT CHANCES SUNDAY WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FINALLY PUSHING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WARM
TEMPS RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT RETREATS TO
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
546 AM CDT WED AUG 9 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-101100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
546 AM CDT WED AUG 9 2006 /446 AM MDT WED AUG 9 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL SUFFICIENTLY
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE
STORM CLUSTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THEN AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL STRONG AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EAST EAST ON
GORDON IN SHERIDAN COUNTY TO HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KAR