Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
244 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES...THEN TEMPERATURES
MID TO LATE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS
AS OF 18Z HAS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR SERN WYOMING...TO FAR
SWRN NEBR...THEN SEWD TO GREAT BEND KS. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH
AT AKRON CO OVER THE LAST HOUR. RING OF FIRE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST TODAY...WITH THE HIGH ANCHORED
OVER KS AND OK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MEAN FLOW...ARE
FIRING OFF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NOTABLY OVER NRN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR SRN COLORADO.

MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO OVERESTIMATE ACTUAL PRECIPITATION AND TODAY
IS NO DIFFERENT AS AREAS ACROSS THE SRN ZONES HAVE SEEN NO
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER AREAS OVER THE NRN CWA...HAVE SEEN DECENT
PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL ON THE 315K NAM ISENTROPIC
SURFACE. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THEN LIFT SLOWLY
NEWD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
SOUTH AND EAST OF AN LBF..TO BURWELL LINE. HAVE INCREASED ONGOING
POPS...AND ASSOCIATED QPF (DUE TO PWS OF 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF
NORMAL)...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE BEFORE MENTIONED LINE. WITH CONTINUED
ERLY FLOW...INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT...AS
ABUNDANT STRATUS SHOULD FILL IN BEHIND THE EXITING PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL FOR TOMORROW PARTICULARLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS...AS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SRLY AND
SSWRLY...SO EARLIER CLEARING AND WARMER TEMPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPR 90S FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE TROF APPROACHES. WRLY WINDS AND H85 TEMPS
SURGING INTO THE LOWER 30S C WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS TO NEAR THE
CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE NORTH. SURFACE TROF PASSAGE FAIRLY UN
EVENTFUL...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE NORTH
WEDS EVENING.

LONG RANGE (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...GENERAL AMPLIFICATION IN THE
UPPR PATTERN LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS A
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE PAC NW COAST. AM EXPECTING DRY
CONDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVHD AND H7
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AS TEMPS SURGE AHEAD OF THE APPG SFC TROF...WHILE SATURDAY
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER (IF THE TROF SLOWS). FOR NOW...NOT
THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THIS NOTION...SO TRENDED TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TOWARD GUIDANCE. THE MAIN ENERGY AND FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF POPS FOR THIS PERIOD
AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION POST FRONTAL...WITH DRY CONDS AND COOLER
TEMPS EXPECTED. H85 TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO HIGHS IN THE LWER TO MID 80S A
POSSIBILITY

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
345 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-081000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
345 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006 /245 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. LESS CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HAS ALLOWED BETTER
HEATING TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS TO
MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT MOVE INTO AREAS WEST OF A
LINE FROM LISCO IN GARDEN COUNTY...TO PALISADE IN HAYES COUNTY MAY
SEE A FEW STORMS REACH SEVERE LIMITS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP TO
THE WEST THAT MAY RESULT IN LOW VISIBILITIES BY DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY...BUT
BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ONTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
AND FAR SOUTHWEST.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO LBF