Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 130911
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
411 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

NEC031-130945-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-060713T0945Z/
CHERRY NE-
311 AM MDT THU JUL 13 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...

AT 309 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES WEST OF INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SHADBOLT ROAD...OR ABOUT
21 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GORDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 61 AND SHADBOLT ROAD BY 325 AM MDT...
  HIGHWAY 61 CROSSING THE NIOBRARA RIVER BY 335 AM MDT...

LAT...LON 4275 10201 4249 10193 4264 10172 4296 10140
      4295 10206

$$

JMC

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 130923
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
422 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006

NEC031-130932-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0169.000000T0000Z-060713T0945Z/
CHERRY NE-
322 AM MDT THU JUL 13 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CHERRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
SUBSTANTIALLY. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED. 

LAT...LON 4275 10201 4249 10193 4264 10172 4296 10140
      4295 10206

$$

JMC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
910 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON TRACK.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE SET
OFF ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AS A SHORT WAVE DROPPED THROUGH AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHED AS FAR EAST AS CRESCENT LAKE BEFORE
ENCOUNTERING THE REMAINING CAP.  CAP WELL SHOWN IN THE 20K NAM
GUIDANCE AND EXTENDED OVER MUCH OF CHERRY COUNTY...OVER HIGHWAY 83
TO NORTH PLATTE AND THEN EXTENDING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. SO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN UP TO BRADY NOT A
SURPRISE.

UPDATE THIS EVENING PLANNED FOR AROUND 10 PM CDT TO REMOVE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  DOWNWARD TREND SHOWN IN STORMS OVER THE
AREA...HOWEVER WOULD LIKE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE ONLY NOW ENTERING THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE FROM WY AND SD AND HOW QUICKLY THE LLJ MAY SET UP
TONIGHT...BEFORE UPDATING ZONES.

NO FLOOD PRODUCTS...NORTH PLATTE RIVER AT NORTH PLATTE 9 PM STAGE IS
4.6 FT (FOUR POINT SIX FEET) DOWN OVER A FOOT FROM YESTERDAY/S STAGE
AND SHARPLY DOWN FROM 5.3 FT THIS MORNING AT 7 AM.

HIRSCH

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN
THE NEAR TERM FOCUSES ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES. AN ACTIVE SHORTWAVE PATTERN
NOTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TANDEM OF SHORTWAVES FROM
NEBRASKA...WWD TO NRN NEVADA. THE FIRST WAVE IS CROSSING THE SNOWY
RANGE AS OF 18Z AND LOOK FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN TO FIRE ACROSS SERN
WY AND THE WRN PANHANDLE IN THE NEXT 1 TO 3 HRS. FCST SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL XSECTIONS INDICATING HIGHLY ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE INITIALLY. BASES SHOULD DROP SOME AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
EWD...HOWEVER WITH A PAPER THIN MOISTURE PROFILE AT LBF AND VTN...IF
CONVECTION CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...IT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET ONLY FCSTED AT 20 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION
SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET.

THE SECOND WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER NERN NEVADA WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT...EMERGING IN THE PANHANDLE BY LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY. TIMING AND APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD PLACE IT NEAR
LBF BY 21Z THURSDAY...COINCIDING WITH PEAK HEATING. FCST SOUNDINGS
ONCE AGAIN ARE INDICATING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
CWA...WITH BASES LOWERING FURTHER EAST. HAVE PAINTED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE CENTRAL...WITH CHANCE POPS FROM CURTIS....TO BASSETT AND
POINTS EWD. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS DECENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...MAINLY
ACROSS THE ERN FA...WITH BETTER THAN 2500 J/KG CAPES AND SURFACE TO
H4 SHEAR BETTER THAN 30 KTS.

AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT...THE WARMUP WILL BEGIN. A PERSISTENT SFC
TROF...WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPS FOCUSED JUST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FROM CENTRAL ND
INTO ERN WY. ERLY AND SERLY WINDS...SHOULD PUMP IN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...TO KEEP US OUT OF THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER
AS THE TROF APPROACHES THE PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY WE SHOULD TORCH
OUT IN THE LWR 100S.

LONG RANGE (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...A BROAD RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMALS...IE. MID 90S TO AROUND 100. THE ONLY RELIEF MAY BE ON
SUNDAY IN THE FAR NORTHEAST...AS A WEAK BACK DOOR COOL FRONT (LWR
90S) ATTEMPTS TO BACK INTO THE NERN ZONES. MODEL SOLNS ARE A LITTLE
DIVERSE ON THIS AT THIS JUNCTURE...AND HAVE OPTED NOT TO DROP MAX
TEMPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY AS THE BEST FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NORTH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ON THE
NERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPR LVL RIDGE.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
357 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132100-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
357 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006 /257 PM MDT WED JUL 12 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EAST OF A
LINE FROM OGALLALA TO VALENTINE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MASEK