Severe Thunderstorm Warning 120, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
255 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

.NEAR TERM...
    WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OF AN
INCH OR MORE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED IN THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE STORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY NOT
SEVERE. WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED STORMS IN TONIGHT. BETTER CHANCES ARE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. HOT AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE THE RED FLAG OUT UNTIL IT
EXPIRES AT 00Z. STRONGER WIND MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING. FOR THE TIME
BEING THOUGH...WE WILL KEEP THE WIND JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&

.EXTENDED...
    SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER IS EXPECTED
TO GENERATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
&&

.SYNOPSIS...
    AT 18Z...GOES DERIVED PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOWED A NARROW PLUME OF
DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS...CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH VALUES OF 25-35MM. IN NEBRASKA...THE
MOISTURE WAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO IMPERIAL.
THIS ALSO COINCIDED WITH THE MAXIMUM INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
LBF SOUNDING SHOWS A PRETTY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BETWEEN
800MB AND 750MB. HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z MSL DATA SHOWED A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. IN THE 6.7U IMAGERY...
THERE WAS A LARGE VORTEX OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WEST OF A LINE FROM MERRIMAN TO SYDNEY.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG FIRE ZONES 204-210.
&&

SPRINGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-151430-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
329 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006 /229 PM MDT WED JUN 14 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE AND AREAS WITHIN THE MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE...IN THE
VICINITY OF THE APPROACHING DRY LINE. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL. IGNITION OF
GRASS FIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO IMPERIAL. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NEEDED
ON THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
451 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             13 NNW OGALLALA         41.30N 101.82W
06/14/2006  E0.75 INCH       KEITH              NE   PUBLIC

&&

BTAYLOR