Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
156 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS IMMINENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH THE NAM
AND THE GFS FIRE OFF A MASSIVE MCS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WHICH TRACKS
MOSTLY SE TAKING AIM ON SW NEB...LBF AND POINTS WEST. THE GFS TAKES
THE MCS RIGHT OVER LBF PRODUCING 2.50 INCHES OF CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. THE NAM IS FARTHER WEST WITH LESS FEEDBACK. AT 18Z A MCS
APPEARS TO BE ORGANIZING ACROSS ERN WY. CELL MOTION ATTM IS NEWD AT
25 MPH. IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES STORMS COULD ENTER FCST AREA AOA
22Z.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ANOTHER MCS COULD FIRE
SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS FAR SWRN NEB AS THE SFC FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS AND ANOTHER LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE
FRONT.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE HOT DRY SWRN U.S. RIDGE IS FCST TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THE DAKOTAS AND THEN DROPPING THROUGH
NEBRKASA AS A COLD FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
HAS BEEN IMPROVING TO THE POINT WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW FCST TO RISE INTO
THE 90S WEDS AND THUR FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND COOLER TEMPS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FCST SKILL THIS FAR OUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
MODEL VERIFICATION SKILL...WHICH HAS BEEN POOR THIS YEAR IN THESE
TYPES OF EVENTS. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ACCURATE
PREDICTING 580+DM H10-5 THICKNESSES NEXT WEEK...MAX TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S WILL OCCUR. THE FCST IS AN UPGRADE TOWARD
THIS GOAL WITH HIGHS CURRENTLY IN THE RANGE OF 90 TO 95. THESE FCST
TEMPS ARE ONE CATEGORY...ABOUT 3F...BELOW THE HPC NUMBERS WHICH
FEATURES UPPER 90S. WE NOT THAT BULLISH.

THE NAM12 WAS USED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAX TEMPS WHICH SHOWS 2M
TEMPS GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE 80S TO NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY. THIS IS
ONE CATEGORY BELOW THE HPC NUMBERS. PCPN CHCS CONTINUE AT 20 PERCENT
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-111000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
304 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 /204 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
IN AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE IN CHERRY COUNTY...TO BROKEN
BOW IN CUSTER COUNTY. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS...SOME WHICH WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AS THE FRONT SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS ON
SUNDAY THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WEST
OF HIGHWAY 61...FROM MERRIMAN IN WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY...TO
IMPERIAL IN CHASE COUNTY. MONDAY AND BEYOND BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
441 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TORNADO          7 NNE GORDON            42.90N 102.15W
06/10/2006                   SHERIDAN           NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPOTTER REPORTS TORNADO ON GROUND 7 EAST 4 NORTH OF
            GORDON. REPORT RELAYED BY GORDON SHERIFF 1630 CDT SHERIFF
            REPORTS MOBILE HOME AND BARN DAMAGED

&&

JSWEET

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
453 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0424 PM     DOWNBURST        15 NW GORDON            42.96N 102.41W
06/10/2006                   SHERIDAN           NE   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            52 KNOT GUST WAS REPORTED BY AUTOMATED SENSORS AT 1624
            CDT NEAR WHITECLAY

&&

JSWEET

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>