Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
253 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER IS IMMINENT AT THIS POINT. SKIES IS CUEING UP. 12Z
NAM SUGGESTS STORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE HEART OF THE SANDHILLS
FOLLOWING THE THETA E RIDGE POSITIONED BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD FIRE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SWRN NEB AS PRESUMABLY THIS POINT THE FRONT WOULD BE LOCATED
THERE.

SUNDAY LOOKS QUIETER AS THE FRONT IS FARTHER SOUTH. BUT HAVE
CONTINUED POP ACROSS WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT WOULD BE POSITIONED
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OR VERY CLOSE. CLOSE ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO FIRE
ACROSS ERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE.

MONDAY AND BEYOND...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN POOR. THE GFS AND
ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH
H5-10DM THICKNESS RISING ABOVE 580DM ACROSS FCST AREA. THE NEW MEX
GUIDANCE IS 10 TO 14F WARMER THAN YESTERDAYS. FCST HAS GONE HALF
WAY TOWARD THE WARMER GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS POSITIONED IN THE 80S
VERSUS GUIDANCE FCST OF MID 90S. WITH THE FRONT NORTH...PRESUMABLY
POPS WILL BE LOW SO THAT ASPECT OF THE FCST HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED. THE
HPC DAYS 1-5 PCPN PROG IS BASICALLY DRY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
454 UNTIL 02Z PARTS OF WESTERN NEB.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
422 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-102130-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
422 PM CDT FRI JUN 9 2006 /322 PM MDT FRI JUN 9 2006/

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PORTIONS WESTERN NEBRASKA
   UNTIL 9 PM CDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
VALENTINE TO OGALLALA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO AND ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. AS A
RESULT...THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
HIGHWAY 2 WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS
FRONT AND IS FORECAST TO CROSS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
GENERATING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

MP