Red Flag Warning 12, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS83 KLBF 282200
RFWLBF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
500 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
TODAY...DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

NEZ204-206-210-219-282300-
/O.EXP.KLBF.FW.W.0012.000000T0000Z-061028T2200Z/
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
SANDHILLS/VALENTINE NWR/NEBRASKA NATIONAL FOREST/
SAMUEL R MCKELVIE NATIONAL FOREST-FRENCHMAN BASIN-LOESS PLAINS-
500 PM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006 /400 PM MDT SAT OCT 28 2006/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CDT /4 PM MDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FELL TO AS LOW AS 14 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 30 DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE SUN SETS. FOR
THIS REASON THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM CDT /4 PM
MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON.

SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE OFFICIALS AND OTHERS PLANNING OR MONITORING LOCAL BURNING
WILL WANT TO FOLLOW THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

HIRSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
315 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT RESULT OF THURSDAYS SYSTEM MERGING WITH SYSTEM
DROPPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND CARVING FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TROF INTO
EASTERN CONUS. FAIRLY BROAD TROF EXTENDS FROM E.PAC INTO WESTERN
STATES WITH WEAK REX TYPE BLOCK SET AS THERE IS UPPER SYSTEM
SPINNING OFF SOCAL COAST. STRONG JET AND MOISTURE PLUME ARE
COMBINING OVER THE S.CANDIAN ROCKIES TO FORM STREAM OF CIRRUS THAT
EXTENDS FROM MT INTO WESTERN CWA. TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST SHOWING
UP IN H2O ARE THE VORT OVER N.MANITOBA AND S/W MOVING INTO NW B.C.
THESE FEATURES WILL EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH WESTERN SYSTEM ROTATING
AROUND THE STRONGER CANDIAN LOW AND PUSH STRONG FRONT AND ARCTIC AIR
ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CWA SOMETIME ON MONDAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO BE THE TOUGHEST PART OF THE FCST TO NAIL DOWN. AHEAD OF THIS
SYTEM HOWEVER PLEASANT LATE FALL WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND THE LVL WAA RESPONSE WILL LEAD TO WARMING WILL INTO
THE 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MERELY
REFRESHED WITH BLEND OF NAM 2M TEMPS AND MET GUIDANCE WITH A FEW
TWEAKS. NW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY STRONG LAPSE RATES AGAIN TODAY
WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ALLOWING BATCH OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN AND EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY
PLEASANT AS WINDS LOOKS TO RELAX. MODEL BLEND MAY STILL BE BEST PATH
TO FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. GFS/NAM SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN
STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF ENERGY ALOFT...SFC LOW PLACEMENT AND
STRENGTH/TIMING OF LLVL CAA. WOULD SUSPECT THE BETTER RESOLUTION OF
NAM MODEL WOULD CATCH COLD AIR INTRUSION BETTER. EVEN LOOKING AT
MODEL...SREF AND MREF MEANS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON TEND TO HINT AT
COLDER AIR ARRIVING FASTER THAN OP MODELS ARE SHOWING ESPECIALLY IN
NW ZONES. HOWEVER THINK WE ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH A FEW MORE
DAYS TO NAIL THIS DOWN...BUT GUT FEELING IS TEMPS WILL BE EARLY IN
THE NW THEN COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE DOWN HIGH PLAINS AS OFTEN
HAPPENS...WITH FALLING TEMPS ALL OF NORTH BY MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN ZONES MOST LIKELY REMAINING WARM UNTIL SUNSET. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE STRONG CAA SHOULD HELP WINDS ALOFT MAKE IT TO SFC
BEHIND FROPA AND WIND EVENT STILL LIKELY. TEMPS COOL WELL INTO THE
40S TO LOW 50S THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES IN THE WEST AND COLD AIR IS SCOURED OUT
BY INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
525 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-291130-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
525 AM CDT SAT OCT 28 2006 /425 AM MDT SAT OCT 28 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

CLB