Red Flag Warning 11, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS83 KLBF 242034
RFWLBF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
334 PM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

.A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THE TEENS HAVE PRECEEDED THE
PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS...HOWEVER AS WINDS
SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...AND INCREASE TO UP TO 30
MPH...TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY DECLINED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER BEHIND THE FRONT AND CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.

NEZ204-250100-
/O.CON.KLBF.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-060825T0100Z/
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
234 PM MDT THU AUG 24 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BRINGINS A SHIFT IN THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUSTS MAY ALSO APPROACH 40
MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVEL BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RECOVER AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. 

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
252 AM CDT THU AUG 24 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
IR SHOWS COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WY WITH WATER VAPOR
SHOWING MOISTURE FEED FROM THE PACIFIC. WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS
MOISTURE ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 4 CORNERS AREA. ONE S/WV
OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA..ONE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MT...AND A THIRD
APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO
THE PANHANDLE. DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEB ARE IN THE 60S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...SURFACE TROUGH ALIGNS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA...AS
PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT CATCHES UP TO THE TROUGH
AFTER 18Z...AND THEN CLEARS THE CWA TO THE EAST AND SOUTH BEFORE
4Z. ISOLATED TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FIRST S/WV TROUGH COMES
THROUGH. STRONGEST STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH
GREATER MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...IN THIS HIGHER CAPE AREA. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL...AS THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS THE BEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...A
LONG DURATION OF EASTERLY COMPONENT LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF. THE MODELS ARE
HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS THEREFORE BEEN
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGHER POPS...LOWER TEMPS AND MORE CLOUDS. FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY ESCAPE THE CLOUDY AND DAMP
CONDITIONS...AND LOWEST POPS ARE INCLUDED IN THOSE AREA. PANHANDLE
ZONES FAVORED FOR PRECIP AND CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE WITH
PERSISTANT UPSLOPE FLOW. WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES WIDELY DIVERGENT
BY 12Z SUNDAY...KEPT WITH THE CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY TREND FOR
SUNDAY UNTIL IT IS MORE CERTAIN WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH CLEARING AND TEMPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO. WARM UP THEREAFTER AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED BECOMES HOW HOT IT
GETS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...PERHAPS MORE 90S.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
349 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-241200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
349 PM CDT WED AUG 23 2006 /249 PM MDT WED AUG 23 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
FAIRLY DRY WITH THE MOISTURE MAINLY LIMITED TO THE MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT
A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

13/KAR