Flash Flood Watch 26, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 PM AST WED OCT 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN HAS EMERGED ACROSS THE
REGION...WHICH CAN POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT
FOR THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN VERY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...EXTENDING
NORTHWEST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS TROUGH HAS ALSO
DESTABILIZED THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL FA...AND COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE
ISLAND. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE MORNINGS
QUICKSCAT PASS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CURVATURE...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A SLIGHT INDICATION OF A CLOSED LOW. STEERING FLOW AT
THE MOMENT IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THIS FEATURE SLOWLY TOWARD THE LOCAL ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY.
MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT FROM THE LOCAL AREA BY
FRIDAY...AND HELP WEAKEN THE STEERING WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THE LOW MAY LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
FA FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. OF COURSE THERE ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST WHICH MAY PREVENT THIS SCENARIO FROM HAPPENING...IN
PARTICULAR...IF THE TROUGH KEEPS DIGGING AND DOES NOT LIFT
OUT...IT WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF THE LOCAL FA. LOCAL
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO REMAIN ABREAST OF THE EXPECTED
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  88  77  89 /  40  40  50  50
STT  79  87  78  87 /  50  50  70  70

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
643 AM AST WED OCT 11 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-121000-
643 AM AST WED OCT 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS
WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA...LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH OR RIVER
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY.
ALSO...A LARGE AND ACTIVE TROPICAL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS ON THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-121000-
643 AM AST WED OCT 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED URBAN AND GUT FLOODING...BUT NO FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY.
ALSO...A LARGE AND ACTIVE TROPICAL WILL MOVE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
LOCAL AREA LATER THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND
COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
AREA. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS ON THIS APPROACHING TROPICAL
WAVE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML

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