Flash Flood Warning 93, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1034 PM AST MON NOV 13 2006

.UPDATE...GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LED TO SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS PUERTO RICO THIS EVENING. DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY...SHOWERS CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP
AFTER SUNSET ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE ISLAND AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT CONTINUED
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS TO COMBINE WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLANDS AGAIN TOMORROW...LEADING TO ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
BUT MADE NO CHANGES BEYOND DAY 2 TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTED THE EASTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES...
MAINLY OVER THE MUNICIPALITY OF RIO GRANDE. ALSO CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OR
MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS THEREFORE EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH A FEW AFFECTING THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

ON TUESDAY...THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST GOOD OMEGA AS THE JET STREAK
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOCAL AREA...ENHANCING AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS THEREFORE THE MOVEMENT OF
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED FLOODING.

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS...THIS WILL PRODUCE TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL
BE REACHING OUR LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

04

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON NOV 13 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-141000-
600 AM AST MON NOV 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND ENABLE AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-141000-
600 AM AST MON NOV 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MOIST LOW LEVELS AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK STEERING WINDS...THE
SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...AND THERE IS THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML