Flash Flood Warning 82, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 191433
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1033 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

VIC010-191442-
SAINT CROIX-
1033 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXPIRED AT 1030 AM AST FOR THE FOLLOWING 
ISLAND...

IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
     SAINT CROIX

AT 1027 AM...SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND U.S.G.S. 
GAUGES INDICATED THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT 
WERE AFFECTING SAINT CROIX EARLIER THIS MORNING HAD TEMPORARILY 
WEAKENED OR MOVED AWAY FROM THE AREA. ALSO...MOST OF THE FLOODED 
ROADWAYS AND GUTS HAD RETURNED TO NORMAL. ALTHOUGH A SCATTERED 
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH 
1115 AM...NO ADDITIONAL...PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING IS 
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

HOWEVER...NEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED 
TO DEVELOP ACROSS ST CROIX AND OTHER SECTIONS OF THE TERRITORY BY 
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN MORE FLASH FLOODING OF GUTS AND 
ROADWAYS AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LANDSLIDES.  

THEREFORE...ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR 
THE WEATHER CLOSELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND BE PREPARED FOR 
ACTION SHOULD WEATHER CONDITIONS WARRANT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION 
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

LAT...LON 1763 6486 1763 6468 1781 6467 1781 6486

$$

BCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...QUICKSCAT DATA LAST NIGHT INDICATED THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAVE LINGERED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...JUST
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE GFS40
SOLUTION NEAR THAT TIME. THE 200MB STREAMLINES/WINDS ANALYSIS
CONTINUED TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS.
225MB-100MB SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS ALSO SHOWED SPEED CONVERGENCE
TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTER AND ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I....THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE IN
THE VICINITY WITH A TREND TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WHILE THIS HAPPENS...STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE ATLANTIC AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE U.S.V.I. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO WILL PERSIST UNTIL FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY WHEN THE
SURFACE LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE
NORTH...AWAY OF THE AREA. ALL THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW LEVEL SOUTH
FLOW WHICH MAY INDUCE AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTH...NORTHEAST AND EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN
AND A TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL KEEP
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSING OVER
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ACTIVE WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY

&&

.MARINE...UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN WATERS AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS CAN PRODUCE DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH
ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WHICH MAY BE INTENSE.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF LOW CEILING AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY FOR THE
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY MAY AGAIN RESULT
IN FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SOME RIVERS GETTING OUT OF THE BANKS.

&&

.CLIMATE...CURRENT MONTH HAS BEEN A RAINY ONE IN SAN JUAN. MONTH TO
DATE 8.27 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN MEASURED. THIS IS 5.42 INCHES
ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 2.85. YEAR TO DATE...12.45 INCHES OF
RAIN ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE HAVE BEEN MEASURED AT THE LMM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  89  78  90  78 /  70  40  50  40
STT  87  79  87  79 /  70  70  70  60

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-201000-
630 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES FROM THE AREA...TYPICAL OCTOBER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND ALWAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-201000-
630 AM AST THU OCT 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PERSISTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. ACTIVE WEATHER
CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF URBAN AND GUT
FLOODING...WITH THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE FROM THE LOCAL
AREA ON FRIDAY. ONCE THE LOW MOVES FROM THE AREA...TYPICAL OCTOBER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND ALWAYS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUIRED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML