Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS JSJ

000 
WGCA72 TJSJ 232328
FFSSJU

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
725 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

PRC141-232335-
UTUADO-
725 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM AST FOR THE
FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY...

IN PUERTO RICO
     UTUADO

NO ADDITIONAL PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OR NEW FLASH FLOODING IS 
EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DE ARECIBO IN UTUADO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED EARLIER HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 730 PM AST. HOWEVER...RIVER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH 
AND RESIDENTS AND MOTORISTS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO REMAIN 
ALERT TO THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND ALLOW TIME FOR RIVERS 
AND STREAMS TO RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

LAT...LON 1831 6666 1826 6670 1822 6670 1823 6673
      1828 6673 1832 6668

$$

SR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 PM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. BY SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL HAVE MOVED TO
JAMAICA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SOUTH INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH WILL BE
DISPLACED TO THE EAST BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH SOME CONVECTION IS NEAR 57
WEST AND IS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE
CONTINUING BEHIND THE WAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A SECOND AND MUCH
BROADER WAVE WITH SOME CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS AT 42 WEST AND
FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE NEAR 39 WEST. OTHER WAVES...WHICH ARE
MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WILL FOLLOW...AND MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED LATER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY GOOD MOISTURE AND A LIFTED INDEX LESS THAN
MINUS 8 PRECEDED TODAYS ACTIVE CONVECTION THAT HAS SO FAR BEEN
ABLE TO PUSH SEVERAL RIVERS INTO FLOOD FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION WAS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WEST AND HAD ENHANCED UPWARD MOTION IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENT GFS IS SHOWING DRYER AIR AT 850 MB ON SUNDAY BUT MOISTURE
DOES NOT REACH MAXIMUM LEVELS UNTIL TUESDAY AT 12Z. THEREFORE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES HAVE BEEN DELAYED UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY IN SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE
GFS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON THURSDAY
ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS.

THE GENERAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY
AND TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH COAST SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER
BEFORE SHOWERS BEGIN. ON MONDAY THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S. AND
THEN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION AND SHOWER CHANCES DECREASES
CONSIDERABLY TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE MODEL BRINGS A LOW
PRESSURE TOWARD THE AREA AND OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 00Z 1
OCTOBER.

&

.MARINE...HURRICANE HELENE AND OTHER AREAS OF INCREASED
WINDS...PARTICULARLY THAT OVER THE NEXT WAVE WILL INCREASE LOCAL
SEAS BY TUESDAY...CURRENT WAVE WATCH IS SHOWING JUST UNDER 6 FEET
AND SO WILL STAY WITH 6 TO 7 FOOT FORECAST INHERITED. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOCAL WATERS WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS PUSHED TOPS WELL INTO THE
40 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. THIS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY...WITH A
FOCUS FARTHER NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE GOOD VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE HAD
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ONE CAVEAT...MONTSERRAT IS STILL
PRODUCING LIGHT ASH THAT IS VISIBLE CURRENTLY AS A PLUME EXTENDING
WEST FROM THE ISLAND TO SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX AND IT WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED LATER IN THE WEEK WHEN WINDS WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  78  91 /  30  30  30  50
STT  77  88  77  88 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-241000-
600 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO RESULT IN URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING.

MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND
THEN SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-241000-
600 AM AST SAT SEP 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...AFFECTING
FROM TIME TO TIME THE LOCAL ISLANDS. MILD NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA TODAY AND WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ISLANDS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS.

MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL
TODAY...WITH WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 57 WEST THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUNDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE AREA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS EXITING TROPICAL WAVE. NO OTHER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML