Flash Flood Warning 44, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1235 PM AST WED JUN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...NUMERIOUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
BUILD OVER MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR...SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA...AND NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE BEYOND 24
HOURS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THOSE
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAME ONSHORE AFFECTING THE EASTERN PART OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE
ISLAND IS THE OTHER AREA THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITHIN THE PAST TWO HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR IS DETECTING AT
THIS HOUR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND. THESE
SHOWERS COULD BE AFFECTING THAT AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS
THESE SHOWERS MOVE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST UNDER A SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW.

SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...HIGH PRESSURE SHALL
DOMINATE THE FA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AT LOW LEVELS...PATCHES
OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS AND DIURNAL DAYTIME HEATING
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF SECTION OF THE ISLAND.

MARINE...EXPECT TODAY SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS AND WINDS RANGING FROM 12 TO 18 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  80  87  80 /  60  40  40  30
STT  83  79  83  79 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST WED JUN 21 2006

PRZ001>013-AMZ710>750-221000-
620 AM AST WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE
ISSUANCE OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS OVER THE REGION.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND
LOCAL RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
EVENING HOURS. MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS
ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAIN EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOISTURE BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING...TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EACH DAY
OF THIS WEEK MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

VIZ001-002-AMZ710>730-221000-
620 AM AST WED JUN 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO THE ISSUANCE OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
ADVISORIES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION AROUND
LOCAL RIVERS AND GUTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.

FROM YOUR PDA/PHONE: HTTP://MOBILE.SRH.NOAA.GOV OR
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1207 PM AST WED JUN 21 2006

PRZ008>010-211700-
NORTHWEST-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-WESTERN INTERIOR-
1207 PM AST WED JUN 21 2006

DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THESE AREAS. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 100 PM. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE NOW OVER
PARTS OF ISABELLA AND QUEBRADILLAS. YOU CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO AS MUCH AS 40 MPH...PEA SIZED
HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS.

SR

COMUNICADO ESPECIAL SOBRE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO
SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1207 PM AST MIERCOLES 21 DE JUNIO DE 2006

PRZ008>010-211700-
NOROESTE-MAYAGUEZ Y VECINDAD-OESTE INTERIOR-
1207 PM AST MIERCOLES 21 DE JUNIO DE 2006

EL RADAR DOPPLER MOSTRO TRONADAS FUERTES QUE CONTINUABAN
DESARROLLANDOSE A TRAVES DE ESTAS AREAS. ESTAS TRONADAS FUERTES SE
MOVERAN HACIA EL NOROESTE HASTA POR LO MENOS LA 1 PM. LAS TRONADAS
MAS FUERTES AHORA SE ENCUENTRAN SOBRE PARTES DE ISABELA Y
QUEBRADILLAS. SE PUEDEN ESPERAR RELAMPAGOS OCASIONALES DE NUBE A
TIERRA...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO DE HASTA 40 MPH...GRANIZO PEQUENO Y
LLUVIA TORRENCIAL EN AREAS AISLADAS.

SR/SANTIAGO