Alert archive / Kentucky / Wind Advisories in 2006

Wind Advisory 5, NWS Jackson, KY

November 30, 200633 counties in Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this wind advisory at Nov 30, 2006, 4:47 AM EST for 33 counties in Kentucky. It took effect at Dec 1, 2006, 4:00 AM EST. It was in force for 11 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 30, 2006, 4:47 AM EST (09:47 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 1, 2006, 4:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 1, 2006, 3:20 PM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, KY
All 33 counties

Bath County, KY, Bell County, KY, Breathitt County, KY, Clay County, KY, Elliott County, KY, Estill County, KY, Fleming County, KY, Floyd County, KY, Harlan County, KY, Jackson County, KY, Johnson County, KY, Knott County, KY, Knox County, KY, Laurel County, KY, Lee County, KY, Leslie County, KY, Letcher County, KY, Magoffin County, KY, Martin County, KY, McCreary County, KY, Menifee County, KY, Montgomery County, KY, Morgan County, KY, Owsley County, KY, Perry County, KY, Pike County, KY, Powell County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Rowan County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Whitley County, KY, Wolfe County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2006-11-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 87 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Cncnati-Daytn, OH at 00:00Z on 2006-11-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 219 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
87 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-27 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
949 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS73 KJKL 300947
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING AT ELEVATIONS OF 2500
FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
50 MPH.

KYZ087-088-118-120-302215-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1200Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
447 AM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AT ELEVATIONS AT 2500
FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY FOR THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. HIGHWAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF BEING AFFECTED
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO U.S. HIGHWAYS 119 AND 421 CROSSING
PINE MOUNTAIN...KENTUCKY STATE HIGHWAYS 160 AND 179 CROSSING BLACK
MOUNTAIN...AS WELL AS U.S. HIGHWAY 23 THROUGH POUND GAP NEAR THE
VIRGINIA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA
CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION MEDIA
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR
INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

WJM
6 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 302100
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT
ELEVATIONS OF 2500 FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 MPH.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
010500-
/O.EXA.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1200Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
400 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY. 

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...
WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY 
FRIDAY.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED TO
DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-010500-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1200Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
400 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AT ELEVATIONS AT 2500
FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY FOR THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. HIGHWAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF BEING
AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO U.S. HIGHWAYS 119 AND
421 CROSSING PINE MOUNTAIN...KENTUCKY STATE HIGHWAYS 160 AND
179 CROSSING BLACK MOUNTAIN...AS WELL AS U.S. HIGHWAY 23 THROUGH
POUND GAP NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

WJM/GREIF
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 010335
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO
45 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR
AT ELEVATIONS OF 2500 FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 MPH.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
011200-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1200Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
1035 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-011200-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1200Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
1035 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST FRIDAY...

MOTORISTS TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. HIGHWAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF BEING AFFECTED
INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO U.S. HIGHWAYS 119 AND 421 CROSSING
PINE MOUNTAIN...KENTUCKY STATE HIGHWAYS 160 AND 179 CROSSING BLACK
MOUNTAIN...AS WELL AS U.S. HIGHWAY 23 THROUGH POUND GAP NEAR THE
VIRGINIA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

JP
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 010856
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY...

.A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR AT ELEVATIONS OF 2500 FEET
AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50
MPH.

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
011815-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T0900Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...
BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
356 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 5 PM EST. 

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-011815-
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T0900Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
356 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AT ELEVATIONS AT 2500
FEET AND ABOVE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY FOR THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. HIGHWAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF BEING
AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO U.S. HIGHWAYS 119 AND
421 CROSSING PINE MOUNTAIN...KENTUCKY STATE HIGHWAYS 160 AND
179 CROSSING BLACK MOUNTAIN...AS WELL AS U.S. HIGHWAY 23 THROUGH
POUND GAP NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

RAY
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 011219
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
719 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
60 MPH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 5 PM EST.

KYZ086-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119-011500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.HW.W.0003.061201T1219Z-061201T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1500Z-061201T2200Z/
KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
719 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
60 MPH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 5 PM EST.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR WIND
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED AND CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY
DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-011500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.HW.W.0003.061201T1219Z-061201T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1500Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
719 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL CAUSE WIND GUSTS OF UP TO
60 MPH UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH 5 PM EST. THE GUSTY WINDS AFTER
10 AM EST TWILL AFFECT ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED FOR LOCATIONS AT ELEVATIONS AT 2500 FEET AND
ABOVE. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
FOR THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. HIGHWAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF BEING
AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO U.S. HIGHWAYS 119 AND
421 CROSSING PINE MOUNTAIN...KENTUCKY STATE HIGHWAYS 160 AND
179 CROSSING BLACK MOUNTAIN...AS WELL AS U.S. HIGHWAY 23 THROUGH
POUND GAP NEAR THE VIRGINIA STATE LINE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR WIND
GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED AND CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY
DAMAGE.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-108-111-114-012030-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...
BOONEVILLE
719 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
5 PM EST.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

JJ
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 011459
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
959 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...

. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT.

KYZ086-104-106-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119-012200-
/O.EXP.KJKL.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-061201T1500Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1500Z-061201T2200Z/
KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-BREATHITT-KNOTT-PERRY-
CLAY-LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...INEZ
959 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

KYZ087-088-118-120-012200-
/O.EXP.KJKL.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-061201T1500Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.061201T1500Z-061201T2200Z/
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
959 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 50 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.


$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>085-108-111-114-012200-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-WOLFE-LEE-OWSLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE...
BOONEVILLE
959 AM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY STRONG THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY ON FRIDAY ARE ENCOURAGED
TO DRIVE WITH CAUTION...ESPECIALLY THOSE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR MORE INFORMATION...
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY.

$$

MCLANE
000 
WWUS73 KJKL 012020
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY CANCELLED...

.THE POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT HIGH WINDS TO
EAST KENTUCKY HAS NOW MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHEAST FOR THE WINDS TO
SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT. WITH WINDS NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-012130-
/O.CAN.KJKL.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-061201T2200Z/
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...
MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...
PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ...PIKEVILLE
320 PM EST FRI DEC 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

$$

GREIF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Nov 29, 9:43 PM EST, 7 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 9:43 PM EST, 7 hours 4 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
943 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...

AREA OF UPGLIDE SHOWERS IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA.
MOST OF THESE WILL PROBABLY NOT MEASURE AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST.
MODELS ARE INDICATING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT...SO
ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 PM WERE
RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER LOCATIONS...TO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RUNNING FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. THIS...COMBINED WITH
AMPLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD ONLY ALLOW A FEW MORE DEGREES OF DROP AT THE
COOLER SPOTS. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A MILD RANGE OF 55 TO 60 DEGREES TO
COVER THE FORECAST AREA. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

530 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LURKING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WHILE A STRUNG OUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT IS
BIDING ITS TIME ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...VERY COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS CHILLING THE PLAINS WITH
READINGS SOME 40 TO 50 DEGREES COLDER THAN BALMY LOCATIONS JUST OFF
TO THE EAST. FOR INSTANCE...READINGS AT 4 PM EST ACROSS MISSOURI
VARIED FROM 27 AT MCI TO 71 DEGREES AT STL. CLOSER TO HOME...THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LIVED UP TO ITS NAME WITH TEMPS ACROSS
KENTUCKY REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...THANKS TO SOUTH WINDS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE EARLY DAY ISENTROPIC SHOWERS LIFTED
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS PLAGUED CWA
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

THE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE
MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A DEEP
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL RACE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND RUN
NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE SLOWER GFS
SOLUTION HAS BEEN VINDICATED TO SOME EXTENT AS THE NAM HAS COME INTO
AGREEMENT WITH IT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE DURING THE KEY TIME OF
ITS PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. ONCE THIS FEATURE
PASSES...A TRAILING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL HELP ESTABLISH A DEEP
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE NAM IS A BIT QUICKER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THIS TROUGH/S SOUTHWEST EXTENT INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THAN THE GFS. THE GFS THEN ROTATES A DEEPENING NODE OF THIS TROUGH
SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THIS THE PATTERN FLATTENS A BIT THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE
ANOTHER TROUGH STARTS TO HEAD THIS WAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENSEMBLES
ALL TEND TO BE LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THE EXTENDED BUT THEY SUPPORT
THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION...ACCORDINGLY HAVE TRENDED
MY EXTENDED TOWARD THE SPECIFICS OF THE 12Z GFS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
TONIGHT BEFORE WE SEE A BETTER CHANCE ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE WAVE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS EASTERN PROGRESS
LATE THURSDAY WITH ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE ALONG ITS COLD FRONT. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ITS COLD FRONT TO
PROMPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FOR EAST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS THIS FRONT APPROACHES...850 MB
WINDS OF 70+ KTS WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY SFC WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST AND ALSO HIGHLIGHTED...ALONG WITH
THE THUNDERSTORM AND SNOW THREAT IN AN SPS AND THE HWO. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SPEEDS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
IF THINGS LOOK AS GOOD OR BETTER IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. COLD AIR WILL
THEN SWEEP INTO EAST KENTUCKY ON WEST WINDS FRIDAY CHANGING ANY
LINGERING PCPN TO SNOW SHOWERS OR...LESS LIKELY...POCKETS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...AS SEEN IN THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FROM THE NAM12. REGARDLESS
..THE AMOUNT OF QPF WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
NOTE AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL DEAL WITH A SLOWLY MODERATING POOL
OF SHALLOW BUT VERY COLD AIR LEFT BEHIND BY THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
AIR GETS A RE-INVIGORATING SHOT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH PASSES. A
FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE RATHER LIMITED. FOLLOWING A CHILLY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH. THIS ONE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO BETTER TAP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SO WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

MOS TEMPERATURES WERE SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH DID LEAN
TOWARD THE MILDER VALUES FROM THE MAV TONIGHT WITH A SMALL DIFFERENCE
FROM RIDGE TO VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY USED A
BLEND OF THE RAW GFS AND NAM NUMBERS TO TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER NUMBERS FROM THE MET FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
FOR POPS...GENERALLY WENT BELOW MAV MOS AND CLOSER TO THE MET VALUES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WENT 100 PERCENT WITH THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND LINGERING CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH TIMES HIGHER
THAN MOS.

AS FOR THE NDFD/IFPS GRIDS...USED MY USUAL PROCEDURE TO POPULATE THE
WIND AND DEWPOINT GRIDS FROM THE NAM12 THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE
DEWPOINTS CAME IN TOO DRY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND NEEDED TO BE
ADJUSTED HIGHER...BUT THE WINDS LOOKED REASONABLE. ALSO USED A
MIXTURE OF THE NAM AND GFS TEMP GRIDS LATE THURSDAY AND DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH THE COMPLICATED...NON-DIURNAL...TEMP PATTERN
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS IN
GREAT SHAPE WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER AND
POP FIELDS THROUGH FRIDAY TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE AND NDFD
CONSENSUS.

1030 AM EST WED NOV 29 2006

AREA IS FIRMLY IN WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE PLAINS
WITH TEMPS WARMING QUICKLY OUT OF THE GATE THIS MORNING. WHILE THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE...TEMPS IN MOST AREAS
ARE NOW FIRMLY IN THE 60S. WITH SUCH A WARM START AND PLENTY OF
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WILL BOOST MAX
TEMP FORECAST INTO THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE. SUCH READINGS WILL
PUT OUR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY.

NO REAL SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES OUTSIDE OF INCREASING TEMPS...ALTHOUGH
DID DECREASED SKY COVER A LITTLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RADAR SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING OUR BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AND
VIRGINIA BORDER COUNTIES CURRENTLY AND MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST ISENTROPIC UP-GLIDE CONTINUES.
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT MOST HOWEVER. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES.

UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE ON THE WAY. HAVE A GOOD DAY...

410 AM EST WED NOV 29 2006

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH MID AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GENERALLY
WENT WITH 40 POPS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
WITH MORE OF THE SAME CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARM THOUGH...EVEN WITH ALL OF THE CLOUD COVER. MOISTURE AND LIFT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
LITTLE MORE OMEGA MOVING THROUGH. INCREASED POPS TO 50 FOR MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
SYSTEM MOVING IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY...BUT A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT OVER MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD BE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
MORNING. THUNDER IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH SOME INSTABILITY THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD HAVE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DATA...I PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION...WHICH
HAS MOVED CLOSE BACK TO IT/S 00Z RUN FROM MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. STILL THINK THE WRF IS TOO FAST WITH THE
SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE COLD AIR SHOULD POUR
INTO THE AREA AFTER FROPA. MOST OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PULLING OUT OF THE AREA AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN. GOOD LOW LEVEL
JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS FOR
FRIDAY. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COULD SEE ANY REMAINING RAIN
SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. H8
TEMPS DROP TO -6 DEG C BY FRIDAY EVENING...WITH 1000 MB - 850 MB
THICKNESSES FALLING BELOW 1300 M. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED WE COULD SEE
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED IN WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ICE NUCLEATION. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE
FORECAST ATTM...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS IN LATER
SHIFTS. GFS MOS TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE...AND USED THESE AS A GUIDE
FOR THE TEMP FORECAST.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS EXCELLENT. ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO
TWEAK SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NEW MEX MOS
IS SHOWING MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE 30S FOR MONDAY. BELIEVE THE GFS IS
OVERDOING THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. THINK THE 850 MB TEMPS
FROM THE ECMWF ARE MORE REASONABLE. NUDGED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
VALUES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO THE COLDER AIR...BUT NOT AS
COLD AS THE GFS NUMBERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

GEOGERIAN
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 29, 4:35 PM EST, 12 hours 12 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
435 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-301200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
435 PM EST WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE CORE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THURSDAY NIGHT.

COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CAUSE ANY LEFT OVER RAIN
SHOWERS TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY GUST TO
AROUND 40 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FRIDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VIRGINIA
AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR STORM
REPORTS.

GREIF

Nearby

Wind Advisories in Kentucky, 2006Every wind advisory in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.