Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF VERY ACTIVE STORMS NOW ENTERING OUR NRN COUNTIES WITH THE
LINE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO AROUND BNA. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING
AND SVR THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. BUT WITH THE HISTORY OF RA+...ESP
ALONG AND NORTH OF I64...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENUF RAIN
TO CREATE ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS...HENCE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THRU SUN 15Z. COLD FNT STILL TRAILING THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY AND NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU OUR CWFA BEFORE 12Z SUN. ALL
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT THE FNT WILL SPAWN ANOTHER BAND OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH 1-2 IN ADDITIONAL RAIN. ONLY DISAGREEMENT IS IN
TIMING OF FNTL PASSAGE WITH THE NAM ABOUT 2-3HRS AHEAD OF THE GFS.

IN THE EXTENDED...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DISFFERENCES AND HAVE
FOLLOWED THE 06Z GFS FOR GUIDANCE AS THE 12Z GFS HAS PUSHED THE NEXT
SYSTEM THRU FASTER. HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREV FCST WITH
BULK OF PCPN NOW FCST FOR THU NITE AND FRI MORN. OTHERWISE...FAIR AND
COOL WILL BE THE WATCH WORDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
752 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE PERIODS TO REFLECT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TO AGREE WITH THE LATEST WATCHES AND
WARNINGS. THE MOREHEAD STATE POLICE REPORTED 4.21 OF RAIN FOR LAST
24 HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ANOTHER UPDATE WILL
BE REQUIRED WHEN THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRES. THE THUNDERSTORMS LAST
NIGHT AND THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN A LOT OF ROTATION DUE TO THE VERY
STRONG WIND SHEAR. THERE WERE SEVERAL STORMS THAT WERE VERY CLOSE TO
FORMING A TORNADO...HOWEVER...THERE WERE NONE THAT ACTUALLY FORMED.
IF THE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO THIN SOME THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH GREATER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK. THE TORNADO WATCH FOR WAYNE AND MCCREARY COUNTIES WILL BE
CANCELED BY 8:30 AM.

403 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

DISCUSSION...
THE SKY OPENED UP TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONT
MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM
ELLIOT TO MONTGOMERY COUNTIES AND THEN WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. ALONG THIS LINE...HEAVY PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED. UP TO
SIX INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE LEXINGTON AREA AND THE RADAR
ESTIMATE IS INDICATING THAT 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS GENERALLY NORTH OF I-64. A TORNADO WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR
FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES DUE TO THE INCREDIBLE WIND SHEAR. THINGS
SHOULD DID DOWN A BIT THIS MORNING...HOWEVER AS THE HEATING GETS
GOING THIS AFTERNOON...THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE A FACTOR. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUMPING
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN OVER THE AREA. THE AREA NORTH OF I64 WILL
BE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING WITH THIS NEXT
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THINGS WILL START DRYING UP
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTH.

1159 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY IN WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN THOSE AREAS.
OPTED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM SAT MORNING FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. THOSE AREAS ALREADY HAVE
RECEIVED BETWEEN ONE AND 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY. RAISED
POPS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE GRIDS AND ZFP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ044-KYZ050-
KYZ051-KYZ052-KYZ058-KYZ059-KYZ060-KYZ068-KYZ069-KYZ079-KYZ080-
KYZ083-KYZ084-KYZ085-KYZ086-KYZ087-KYZ088-KYZ104-KYZ106-KYZ107-
KYZ108-KYZ109-KYZ110-KYZ111-KYZ112-KYZ113-KYZ114-KYZ115-KYZ116-
KYZ117-KYZ118-KYZ119-KYZ120.

&&

DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
445 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-242345-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
445 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT
WITH MANY STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN
HAVING ALREADY SATURATED THE GROUND...EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TO CREATE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL AGAIN CREATE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
RISES ON THE LARGER RIVERS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED. SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO CALL IN
REPORTS OF HEAVY RAIN...FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.

DUSTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1212 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W OWINGSVILLE         38.14N 83.87W
09/23/2006                   BATH               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED BALD EAGLE BRIDGE UNDER WATER.
            ALSO RESIDENTS EVACUATED FROM HOMES IN WESTERN PORTIONS
            OF THE COUNTY. U.S. HWY 60 UNDER 3 FEET OF RUNNING WATER
            AND HWY 36 IN SHARPSBURG UNDER WATER. BOTH HIGHWAYS
            IMPASSIBLE. EVENTS BEGAN WITH FLOODING OF HIGHWAYS AT
            ABOUT 230 AM.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
09/23/2006                   MONTGOMERY         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING COUNTY WIDE. ROADS IN AND OUT OF MOUNT
            STERLING IMPASSIBLE AND CLOSED. SEVERAL EVACUATIONS OF
            RESIDENTS FROM HOMES ACROSS THE COUNTY. EVENTS BEGAN
            AROUND 3 AM.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HAYS CROSSING           38.24N 83.45W
09/23/2006                   ROWAN              KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIVE RESDIENTS EVACUATED FROM HOMES IN HAYS CROSSING AREA
            DUE TO FLOODING.

0330 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
09/23/2006                   MONTGOMERY         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE STREETS STILL CLOSED IN MOUNT STERLING AND ROADS
            CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY ALL DUE TO HIGH WATER. STREET
            CLOSURES IN MOUNT STERLING INCLUDE EAST MAIN FROM WILLOW
            ST TO HIGH ST, HINKSTON DOWN TO GARDEN SPRING, AND QUEEN
            ST AT WYKAGLE. COUNTY ROADS STILL CLOSED INCLUDE HINKSTON
            PIKE, HOWARDS MILL ROAD, ROGERS MILL, CECIL PIKE, AND
            STEPSTONE ROAD.

0421 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 W FRENCHBURG          37.95N 83.71W
09/23/2006                   MENIFEE            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 460 WEST CLOSED FOR FLASH FLOOD. ALSO ROUTE 36
            HAD WATER OVER ROAD WITH WATER CLOSE TO HOMES BUT NOT
            FLOODING.

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WRIGLEY                 38.02N 83.27W
09/23/2006                   MORGAN             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 711 IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING.

0810 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LONDON                  37.13N 84.08W
09/23/2006                   LAUREL             KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL ROADS CLOSED IN LONDON...INCLUDING TOBACCO
            ROAD...MIDDLEGROUND WAY AND COOLIDGE.

&&

JCARICO