Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER IA THIS MORNING IS NOW KICKING UP SOME VERY
STRONG STORMS OVER SE IN. TOPS ON RADAR INDICATING OVER 60K WITH
LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. TRACK OF STORMS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS
ERN KY WITH IMPACT TO OCCUR AROUND 5 PM. WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TONIGHT
AND FRI WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FOLLOWING S/WV
NOW OVER WRN IA. WAA HAS BOOSTED OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER
80S N AND LOWER 90S SW. CLOUD COVER ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND WILL ONLY FCST LOWER/MID 80S FOR FRI. HAVE GONE ABOVE
MAV MOS FOR MOST OTHER TEMPS AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP DRY WX IN AREA AND
DRY WX WILL HEAT UP BETTER. FOG IN VALLEYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO
MIN TEMPS LIKELY.

WEEKEND WX WILL FEATURE NO PCPN FROM SAT THRU MON AND TEMPS STARTING
NEAR 80 AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS TO PUSH
INTO ERN KY MON NITE THRU WED WITH CHC PCPN TO RETURN TO FCST AND
THEN AS HIGH PRESS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENG NE FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR IN FCST. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS
CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO
VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING
TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART
DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS
APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED
EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES.
HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING
UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT.

859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE
FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY
EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION
OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE
WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF.

UPDATE OUT SOON.

302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE
AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN
PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS
AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL
WAVE TRAVERSES REGION.

TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE
MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO
TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG
STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE
KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED.
WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST.
FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO
TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE
SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA
WIDE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1216 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1216 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
AGAIN NEXT MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL OR FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AR/RAY