Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

LARGE STACKED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD AND TAKE ANY LINGERING MOISTURE WITH IT.

TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNSET WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
THREAT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA AFTER
SUNSET WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

TUESDAY...WITH COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
DRIFTING ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WILL CONTINUE ISOLD/SCTD
THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NERN FL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH WITH COOLER MAX
TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT ACRS CNTRL FL WITH LAST
OF ISOLD TSTM ACTIVITY ACRS NERN FL COASTAL AREAS. SKIES SHOULD
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY...COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SFC TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE WESTERLY QUADRANT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME WEAKENING FRONTAL
ZONES FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE TSTM
POPS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL START
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY AND SURGE CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES OVER
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...AFTER A MORNING FILLED WITH CLOSE TO EXERCISE CAUTION
VALUES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS...WINDS HAVE NOW SETTLED INTO THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE. QUITE A DISPARITY FOR THE SHORT TERM WINDS AMONG
THE NAM AND THE GFS WITH THE GFS MUCH STRONGER AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE SOME CONVECTIVE GUSTS
HIGHER THAN THAT...WILL CAP WINDS AT 15 KNOTS FOR TONIGHT BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS GENERALLY IN STORE IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT SCEC CONDITIONS MAY EMERGE BY THE WEEKEND IN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE HOISTED A SMALL AREA WATCH FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE QUITE A LARGE SPREAD. NAM
HANGS THE FRONT UP A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY KEEPS
HIGHER DEWPOINT VALUES OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. FEEL GFS HAS THE
BEST HANDLE RIGHT NOW AND OUTFLOWS MAY AID FRONTAL PROGRESSION
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND HAS PROMPTED THE WATCH FOR THIS AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  79  54  81 /  30   5   5   5
SSI  60  78  59  80 /  30   5  10   5
JAX  59  80  56  83 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  64  77  59  80 /  30  30  20   5
GNV  61  81  55  83 /  20  20  20   5
OCF  63  81  56  83 /  30  40  20   5

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLUMBIA...HAMILTON...AND SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX...DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

GAZ164-152100-
CHARLTON-
413 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLTON COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 500
PM EDT...

AT 413 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF HOMELAND...
OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF FOLKSTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
HOMELAND AND FOLKSTON THROUGH 500 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
423 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

GAZ165-166-152115-
COASTAL CAMDEN-INLAND CAMDEN-
423 PM EDT MON MAY 15 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAMDEN COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

AT 423 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TARBORO...OR ABOUT
4 MILES NORTH OF FOLKSTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TARBORO...WOODBINE AND
WAVERLY THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

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