Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

.SHORT TERM...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED THE PANHANDLE AND NRN
GULF THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SUWANNEE VALLEY
VICINITY WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS SE GEORGIA.
PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS HAS SO FAR THWARTED DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF
THIS BAND AND CAP WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK. HOWEVER LAPS SHOWS CAPES
AOA 2000 J/KG AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS FROM CEDAR KEY TO GAINESVILLE
NEWD TO I-10 AND JAX. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS NE FLORIDA
THEY ARE TAPPING INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WILL HAVE SMALL
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL REACH
THE EAST COAST BY LATE AFTN. ONLY CHANGE TO FCST THROUGH TONIGHT
IS TO KEEP CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER ERN SECTIONS THROUGH LATE EVENING.

THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY
MORNING DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE IT WILL
BECOME DIFFUSE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE REGION
AND SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
INTO UPPER 80S EXCEPT FOR LOWER 80S NEAR COAST SUNDAY DUE TO
ONSHORE FLOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...WED-SAT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
RAIN WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ALTHOUGH STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY STORMS MOVING OVER COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN/EVENING.
WILL ISSUE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AS NEEDED AN KEEP WINDS AOB
15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TO CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AROUND 4 TO 5 HOURS INLAND AREAS OF
NE FLORIDA. WILL ISSUE FIRE WEATHER WATCH AND LEAVE FINAL DECISION
FOR UPGRADING TO WARNING TO LATER SHIFTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  87  60  89 /  10   0   5   5
SSI  62  81  63  85 /  30   0   0  10
JAX  61  84  60  88 /  30   0   0   0
SGJ  64  80  62  85 /  40   0   0   5
GNV  61  87  58  88 /  30   0   0   0
OCF  63  88  59  89 /  30   0   5   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
     COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...PUTNAM...
     SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX...CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
515 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-230915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
515 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TODAY. WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY...SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. AS THESE STORMS
PROGRESS TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND COLLIDE WITH A LATE DEVELOPING
SEABREEZE...STORMS MAY STRENGTHEN WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME NO
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE POSTED BUT RH VALUES WILL BE DIPPING INTO
THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS...INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD REMAIN ON STANDBY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

DEESE

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