Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WILL BE CONCERNED
MOSTLY WITH SMALL PORTIONS OF THE SW-NE ORIENTED LINE AS THEY BOW
OUT AT TIMES INTO POSSIBLE TORNADIC CIRCULATIONS. SW-NE LINE WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD EXIT
OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ISOLD SHOWERS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. MIN
TEMPS WILL ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

TUE...BECOMING SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH WEST WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 MPH AT TIMES. NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
WILL MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.

TUE NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 40S AND SOME PATCHY FOG DUE TO CALM WINDS AND WET GROUND BY
MORNING.

WED...MOSTLY SUNNY AND CONTINUED MILD WITH WEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS
AND MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT...INCREASING MID/HI CLOUDS AHEAD OF COLD SHOT OF
AIR...STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE GOES THROUGH
DRY AND WILL HOLD POPS IN THE 10% OR LESS RANGE. MIN TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE FRI
AND SAT NIGHTS AS VERY COLD SHOT OF AIR PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. NEW 12Z GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH
OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INCLUDE TOR WATCH AND SCA FOR OFFSHORE
WATERS. COLD FRONT AND CONVECTION WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCA
CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND SCEC NEAR SHORE MAINLY DUE TO WINDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL INCREASE WINDS AND
SEAS AGAIN TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  68  40  68 /  40   0   0   0
SSI  57  68  43  66 /  50   0   0   0
JAX  57  71  41  68 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  61  72  46  67 /  50   0   0   0
GNV  57  72  41  70 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  58  73  42  71 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES:ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
      OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
      OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
      OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC...HESS
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
133 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8 ADDED

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
133 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER
NORTH WHILE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INFLUX OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY...AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
AFTERNOON...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECEDE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL INTERACT WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO CREATE
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS....WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL...STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ENDING WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST
INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENT STORM SYSTEM. PLEASE LEAVE WEATHER
RADIOS IN ALERT MODE. REMEMBER TO SEEK SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING OR A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER APPROACH
YOUR AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AND USHER IN
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DURING THE WEEKEND...
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA. PLEASE
RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/HESS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
449 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             BAXLEY                  31.76N 82.35W
01/02/2006  0.25 INCH        APPLING            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MTRABERT

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
459 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

FLZ024-025-022230-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
459 PM EST MON JAN 2 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU AND DUVAL
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 530 PM EST...

AT 459 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF TALBOT
ISLAND...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TALBOT ISLAND...LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND
AND AMELIA CITY THROUGH 530 PM EST. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

HESS

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