Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING
EWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AND FL PANHANDLE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE LINES. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF STORMS
WILL REACH THE NWRN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S. JUICY 70 DEG DEWPOINTS ARE
BEGINNING TO INVADE THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE LLVL CAP ERODES. MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 2000 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH SE GA WILL BE INITIAL AREA OF FOCUS. THEN
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NE FL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH FLORIDA.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THEN
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE AREA FORMING A WEDGE MON/TUE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PERIODIC MARITIME CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST. UNSEASONABLY COOL MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST WITH MID 70S FARTHER INLAND SUN/MON WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN SE GA SWD INTO SUWANNEE
VALLEY WITH LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT MON/TUE WHEN CONVERGENCE BANDS
MAY FORM OFFSHORE BRINGING A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ONSHORE IN NE FL.

.LONG TERM...CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF DEEP
LAYER TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS THE TRAVEL EWD THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL NELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY
SEASONABLE TEMPS WED/THU. THEN A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FRI/SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCEC TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS BECOMING NW AND N
BY MORNING AND INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOW . THUS SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AWHILE AIDED BY RISING SEAS AND
EVENTUALLY SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS REACHED OVER SE PART OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  BUNNELL REPORTING 31 PERCENT RH WITH 20 MPH WINDS.
HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR FLAGLER...MARION...AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM.  NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE CRITICAL
RHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  70  45  73 /  60  10   5   5
SSI  57  66  51  67 /  60  20   5   5
JAX  59  69  49  70 /  50  20   5  10
SGJ  63  69  56  69 /  50  30  10  10
GNV  62  75  51  75 /  50  20   5  10
OCF  64  77  54  76 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...
     FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...
     ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FLAGLER...PUTNAM...MARION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CLINCH...
     COASTAL CAMDEN...COASTAL GLYNN...COFFEE...ECHOLS...INLAND
     CAMDEN...INLAND GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...WARE...AND
     WAYNE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM...ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
145 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE AREA. REFER TO THE URGENT
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREAS BEACHES
IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
728 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

FLZ022-023-GAZ150-163-164-090030-
BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-WARE-
728 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAKER...
COLUMBIA...CHARLTON...CLINCH AND WARE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 728 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER COLUMBIA COUNTY...OR ABOUT
14 MILES SOUTH OF FARGO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND HOMERVILLE...WAYCROSS
AND BLACKSHEAR THROUGH 830 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

DEESE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
739 PM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             HILLIARD                30.69N 81.92W
04/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       NASSAU             FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            1 INCH SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY CWSU METEOROLIGIST ON DUTY

&&

PKEEGAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
741 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

FLZ020-090030-
HAMILTON-
741 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN HAMILTON
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

AT 741 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER HAMILTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES
EAST OF JASPER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND THROUGH 830 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF
INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

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