Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
239 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW LINES OF CONVECTION MOVING
EWD ALONG THE NRN GULF COAST AND FL PANHANDLE. INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE TRAVELING NEWD ALONG THE LINES. ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF STORMS
WILL REACH THE NWRN COUNTIES BY MID AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ALLOW
TEMPS TO SOAR INTO THE MID 80S. JUICY 70 DEG DEWPOINTS ARE
BEGINNING TO INVADE THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTN/EVENING AS THE LLVL CAP ERODES. MLCAPES
ARE AROUND 2000 AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP. THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY THROUGH SE GA WILL BE INITIAL AREA OF FOCUS. THEN
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO NE FL BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH FLORIDA.

EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST PORTION SUNDAY MORNING THEN
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE AREA FORMING A WEDGE MON/TUE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PROVIDE COOL NORTHEAST WINDS WITH PERIODIC MARITIME CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST. UNSEASONABLY COOL MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST WITH MID 70S FARTHER INLAND SUN/MON WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMO ON TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S IN SE GA SWD INTO SUWANNEE
VALLEY WITH LOWER/MID 50S ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID WEEK EXCEPT MON/TUE WHEN CONVERGENCE BANDS
MAY FORM OFFSHORE BRINGING A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS ONSHORE IN NE FL.

.LONG TERM...CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN BASE OF DEEP
LAYER TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS THE TRAVEL EWD THROUGH END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL NELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST WITH MAINLY
SEASONABLE TEMPS WED/THU. THEN A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FRI/SAT ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 80S WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCEC TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS BECOMING NW AND N
BY MORNING AND INCREASING TO SCA CONDITIONS.  WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOW . THUS SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AWHILE AIDED BY RISING SEAS AND
EVENTUALLY SWELLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS REACHED OVER SE PART OF AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  BUNNELL REPORTING 31 PERCENT RH WITH 20 MPH WINDS.
HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR FLAGLER...MARION...AND PUTNAM
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM.  NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE CRITICAL
RHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  70  45  73 /  60  10   5   5
SSI  57  66  51  67 /  60  20   5   5
JAX  59  69  49  70 /  50  20   5  10
SGJ  63  69  56  69 /  50  30  10  10
GNV  62  75  51  75 /  50  20   5  10
OCF  64  77  54  76 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...
     FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...
     ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     FLAGLER...PUTNAM...MARION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...CLINCH...
     COASTAL CAMDEN...COASTAL GLYNN...COFFEE...ECHOLS...INLAND
     CAMDEN...INLAND GLYNN...JEFF DAVIS...PIERCE...WARE...AND
     WAYNE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MONDAY FOR
THE      FOLLOWING ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM...ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...TRABERT
MARINE/FIRE WX...ZIBURA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
145 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM EDT...

...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...

A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MAIN
CONCERNS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE AREA. REFER TO THE URGENT
WEATHER MESSAGE FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

AN ABOVE NORMAL RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREAS BEACHES
IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ132>135-081915-
APPLING-BACON-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
224 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN COFFEE...
APPLING...SOUTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS AND NORTHERN BACON COUNTIES FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 315 PM
EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER WEST GREEN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES EAST
OF BROXTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WEST GREEN...DENTON...GRAHAM...PINE
GROVE AND BAXLEY THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ133-081915-
JEFF DAVIS-
251 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN JEFF
DAVIS COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
VALID UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED ABOUT 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HAZLEHURST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS NORTH OF HAZLEHURST THROUGH 315 PM
EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             PINE GROVE              31.81N 82.45W
04/08/2006  M0.75 INCH       APPLING            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME AND PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT STATE ROAD 341. ALSO
            WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

&&

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ132-133-082030-
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-
335 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 335 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
9 MILES WEST OF RED BLUFF TO 20 MILES WEST OF AMBROSE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES EAST OF FITZGERALD TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF OCILLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES BY 345
PM EDT AND WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND RED BLUFF...AMBROSE...PRIDGEN
AND SNIPESVILLE THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ135-136-082030-
APPLING-WAYNE-
352 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN
APPLING AND WAYNE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 352 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ODUM...OR ABOUT 13
MILES NORTHWEST OF PATTERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ODUM...JESUP AND
DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 430 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

FLZ020-GAZ162-082045-
ECHOLS-HAMILTON-
354 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAMILTON AND
ECHOLS COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 354 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES WEST OF JENNINGS...OR ABOUT 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF MADISON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND JENNINGS AND STATENVILLE
THROUGH 445 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES...A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A TORNADO WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE