Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT THU SEP 7 2006

.SHORT TERM...WARM FRONT LIKELY EXTENDS OVER THE GEORGIA ATLANTIC
WATERS TO NEAR THE U.S HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN SOUTH
GEORGIA...THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE LOW HAS ALSO FORMED ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. QUITE WARM
CONDITIONS EXTEND SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO ADVANCE INLAND. ALOFT...LARGE SCALE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CANADA SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGIONS...WITH A 60 TO 80 KNOT JET PRECEDING SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
THIS MEAN TROUGH. NUMEROUS INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR
WIDESPREAD WEATHER EVENT THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT...INCLUDING LIFTING WARM FRONT...RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF
JET-STREAK...SEA-BREEZE INTRUSION...APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
AREA...DEEP MOISTURE PLUME AND MYRIAD OF OTHER LIFTING MECHANISMS.
WILL INCLUDE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR TONIGHT...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...FORCING ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS OFFSHORE.
IN ADDITION...SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...POSITIONING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY.

AS SURFACE LOW ADVANCES TO OUR NORTHEAST...A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE...
WILL INCLUDE LOW-END POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WILL HAVE A W-E DISTRIBUTION OF POPS...HIGHEST OVER THE
WESTERN ZONES AS A DOMINANT NORTHEAST FLOW WILLA ALLOW EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO ADVANCE WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF UPCOMING
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS TO THE NORTH...WITH FLORENCE
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY STEER TO THE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE W-E DISTRIBUTION OF POPS...WITH GREATEST
POPS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE AREA. NLY FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRI AFTN. A PREVAILING NNE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUN WITH SWELLS BUILDING IN THE WATERS AS
FLORENCE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE INCREASING LATE THIS WEEKEND AS WILL THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING/BEACH EROSION AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE LOW CIGS/REDUCED VISIBILITIES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE OVER N FL/S GA.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE FRI AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE NNW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  86  69  88 /  70  50  20  20
SSI  75  85  75  85 /  70  60  20  20
JAX  72  87  73  88 /  70  50  20  30
SGJ  76  86  76  86 /  60  50  20  20
GNV  72  89  71  89 /  60  50  20  30
OCF  72  89  72  90 /  50  40  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...ZAPPE
MARINE/FIRE WX...ENYEDI
AVIATION...ENYEDI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
950 AM EDT THU SEP 7 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-081000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
950 AM EDT THU SEP 7 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...

A WEAK FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TODAY AS A
WARM FRONT...IN ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
LATE AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY
MAY CAUSE MINOR TEMPORARY FLOODING PROBLEMS.

STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 MPH. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY...WITH LESS COVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OCEAN SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD THIS
WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

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