Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE FEATURES INCLUDE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS TO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER ALABAMA. A ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS FROM BIG BEND REGION OF NORTH FLORIDA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
REPRESENTED BY A AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME...WITH BELT OF SUBTROPICAL
HIGHS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
CURVING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...WITH A DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. A
CUT-OFF LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER IOWA...WHILE ANOTHER
MID-UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
THE PLACEMENT OF THESE MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS PRESENTING
INCREASED MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF JAX CWA...AS EVIDENCED BY SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PER DOPPLER RADARS.

THE FLOW REGIME OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AS SERIES OF IMPULSES AND
AFOREMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW PHASE...ALLOWING FOR MEAN TROUGH TO DIG
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL IN ESSENCE ALLOW THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO RETROGRADE AND
STRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL PHASE AND
MIGRATE EAST THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH.

FOR JAX CWA...GREATEST RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST ZONES) AS MEAN
LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH MAIN LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ENOUGH OFFSHORE (WESTERLY) COMPONENT
TO DECREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY REGION. THERE
APPEARS ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO PUSH WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN NIGHT-TIME PROGRESSION...
PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BEC0ME
DIFFUSE UPON REACHING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER
TROUGH LOSING ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION...WHILE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACTIVITY...WITH OVERALL GREATEST ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN-MOST ZONES OF JAX CWA WHERE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.

&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY NORTH OF THE WATERS. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY SLIDE
SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY FURTHER DIMINISHING THE GRADIENT. FLOW WILL
BECOME ONSHORE BUT REMAIN LIGHT BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO BE DOMINATE FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AND OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH SCATTERED TSRA. ONLY LIGHT FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  90  69  89 /  40  30  30  30
SSI  76  87  74  88 /  20  40  40  40
JAX  73  89  72  90 /  20  50  40  40
SGJ  75  86  74  88 /  20  60  50  40
GNV  71  90  71  90 /  40  50  40  40
OCF  71  90  71  90 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...ZAPPE
MARINE/FIRE WX...CAMP
AVIATION...CAMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
610 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-051000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
610 AM EDT MON SEP 4 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE SHOWERS WILL BE
MORE NUMEROUS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ

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