Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THOUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...STORM OUTFLOW FROM LAST NIGHT MADE IT MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH THAN MODEL PROJECTIONS AND REMAINS AT THIS HOUR OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...DESPITE AREAS NORTH OF THIS REMAINING IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MAIN PROBLEM FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE POOR MODEL INITIALIZATION
AND PROJECTIONS THROUGH 6H WHICH ARE ALREADY WAY OVERDONE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE SOUTHERLY JET DEVELOPING
OVER THE OCALA AREA AT THIS HOUR...LIFTING OVER CURRENT CENTRAL
FLORIDA BOUNDARY. THIS PRODUCES A BULLSEYE OF OMEGA AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY FROM INTERSTATE 10 SOUTHWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
FAR...THIS HAS NOT OCCURRED AND MAIN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS
BEEN CENTERED AROUND DIFFLUENT SIGNATURE ALOFT RATHER THAN
ISENTROPIC LIFT.

WILL USE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR CURRENT SETUP FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST. EXPECT RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS MORE MODEST 850 SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES. AS LOW
DEVELOPS FURTHER OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO DIGGING TROUGH...EXPECT DIVERGENT SIGNATURE ALOFT TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION AND WILL CARRY HIGHEST
POPS THERE. EXPECT GEORGIA PORTION TO REMAIN IN BETWEEN CONVECTIVE
FOCI WITH ENERGY WEST OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTH AND DIFFLUENT RAIN
SHIELD OVER FLORIDA REMAINING TO THE SOUTH. WILL THEREFORE
UNDERCUT MOS POPS OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION FOR TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEWPOINTS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 60S
OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY POSE SOME CONCERN AS CELLS DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SECONDARY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMES INTO
GEORGIA PORTION LATER TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.
CONTINUED MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS PRIOR TO FRONT WILL MEAN A
CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT RISK POTENTIAL.

RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF...BUT A RAPID CLEARING IN STORE UP TO 18Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY MORNING AS LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW
REGIME TAKES SHAPE. PARENT HIGH ORIGINS NOT VERY COLD AND EXPECT
VERY BORDERLINE FREEZE CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNINGS.

.LONG TERM...LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES MORE BROAD IN THE EXTENDED
BUT STILL FAVORS THE EAST COAST. WILL THEREFORE SEE SOME
DISTURBANCES DROPPING THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT WITHOUT TAPPING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF GULF MOISTURE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE A DRY PERIOD IN STORE.

&&

.MARINE...WILL REINTRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OFFSHORE
AT 00Z AND SMALL CRAFT CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR NOW...BUT SUSPECT
MID SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SECTION AS WELL. PROLONGED PERIOD
OF 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL PRODUCE 7 TO 8 FT
SEAS THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH UNTIL FRONT
PASSES THRU THE AREA SAT AFTN. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FIRE WX WATCH
FOR SUN AS EVENT LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DUNK WITH 25% RH VALUES AND
SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  60  33  56 /  40  10   0   0
SSI  57  64  34  56 /  60  10   0   0
JAX  60  66  33  58 /  70  20   0   0
SGJ  61  66  35  58 /  70  50   0   0
GNV  60  65  33  60 /  70  30   0   0
OCF  61  66  35  61 /  70  50   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FIRE WX WATCH SUN AFTN FOR ALL OF NE FL.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING THRU SUN MORNING ALTAMAHA
SOUND TO FLAGLER BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&

PUBLIC...DEESE
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
502 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-041000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
502 PM EST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 9 PM EST...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENT THAT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE
FROST FORMATION MONDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED IN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP

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