Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...

.SYNOPSIS...A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN GA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
VORTEX IS LIFTING NE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING TROUGH OVER MISSISSIPPI ARE LOSING THEIR
EASTWARD PUSH AS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE SHUNTED TO THE NORTH. THE
STRONGEST STORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SQUALL HAVE BEEN CONFINED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY RESIDES. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED MUCH OF THE
DAY OVER THE CWA...WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS INCREASED TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 70S AND DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...
THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE JAX CWA
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW EJECTS NE. SCATTERED STORMS EMBEDDED
IN THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SUWANNEE RIVER ZONES NEAR THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN FL WHERE MEAN LAYER SW STEERING FLOW MAY ADVECT ENOUGH
GOMEX INSTABILITY INLAND TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS IN DOWNDRAFTS AND IN BOWING SEGMENTS COURTESY OF A STRONG
AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OF 35-40 KTS AROUND 3KFT...BUT AGAIN WE
NEED ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HELP MIX DOWN THESE WINDS. ALSO NOTE THAT
WINDS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES ARE SE...SO A VEERING PROFILE WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITIES MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...
AGAIN DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND KEEP
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT LIFTS NE TONIGHT...WITH THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING
OVER OUR GA ZONES WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY
DAYBREAK. LEANED TOWARD THE WARM SIDE FOR TEMPS DUE TO LINGERING
CLOUD COVER...WITH MINS IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND...AND LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST. DECREASED POPS FROM 80% THIS EVENING TO 20-40% NEAR
DAYBREAK WITH A N-S GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES FRI AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD. MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENISIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION FRI AFTN. OVER THE JAX CWA...IN ADVANCE OF THIS
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...THE STALLED FRONT OVER N-CENTRAL FL WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FL ZONES EARLY FRI...WITH
AN INCREASE IN POPS NORTHWARD INTO OUR GA ZONES LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE FINAL SURFACE LOW MOVES NE THROUGH GA. THE DRY SLOT IN PLACE OUR
OUR GA ZONES EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE INSOLATION AND
RAISE INSTABILITY LEVELS MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY. DYNAMICS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG AND MOISTURE NOT AS DEEP COMPARED TO
TODAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH A N-S POP GRADIENT FOR LATE FRI AFTN INTO
FRI EVENING OF 40-60%.

SAT THE SURFACE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH SOME
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID-MORNING. AS SKIES CLEAR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AS THE
850 MB TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MID-DAY...850MB
WINDS OF 35-40 KTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND MAKE FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.  A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SAT NIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE AS RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
MINS SUN MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S...BUT GRADIENT
FLOW FROM THE NNW SHOULD PREVENT A FREEZE. SUN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PREVAIL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...MAKING FOR A
POSSIBLE FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST SUN NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU...
MEAN LAYER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
PERIOD KEEPING TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO...AND BRINING A
SERIES OF IMPULSES INTO THE REGION. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST
OF FL ON MON...WITH A FAST BUT MEAGER LOOKING TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA MON NIGHT. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING US SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND
HAVE KEPT POPS AT 20% FOR NOW. TUE-THU BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS TO THE GULF COAST WEAKENS AS THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE
SOUTHEAST REGION LATE THU.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION NEARSHORE. A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED FRI...THEN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RETURN SCA CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  71  53  58 /  80  30  40  10
SSI  59  70  57  62 /  80  50  50  10
JAX  61  74  59  64 /  80  50  50  20
SGJ  62  73  61  65 /  60  50  60  30
GNV  61  74  59  63 /  70  50  50  20
OCF  62  76  61  64 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE...FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE...AND ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC...ENYEDI
MARINE/FIRE WX...CARROLL

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
413 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

FLZ020-021-022145-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
413 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST
SUWANNEE AND WESTERN HAMILTON COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL
CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 445 PM EST...

AT 413 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWANNEE RIVER
STATE PARK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SUWANNEE RIVER STATE PARK...
ELLAVILLE...FALMOUTH...CROSSROADS AND JENNINGS THROUGH 445 PM EST.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
415 PM EST THU FEB 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     WAYCROSS                31.21N 82.36W
02/02/2006                   WARE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAW ENFORNCEMENT STATES SEEING CIRCULAR MOTION IN CLOUDS
            TO START FUNNEL, NEVER COMPLETEDLY FORMED. 100 FEET FROM
            GROUND. ANOTHER FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT AT 330 PM IN
            WAYCROSS.

&&

ARS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

GAZ152>154-165-022215-
BRANTLEY-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
434 PM EST THU FEB 2 2006

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
BRANTLEY...NORTHERN CAMDEN AND GLYNN COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 515 PM EST...

AT 434 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 14 MILES WEST OF WAVERLY...OR ABOUT 11
MILES SOUTH OF NAHUNTA...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND WAVERLY...DOCK
JUNCTION...BRUNSWICK AND COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES THROUGH 515 PM EST.
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ZAPPE

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