Red Flag Warning 83, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS GA/NRN FL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL COMBINE WITH
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A FEW T-STORMS INTO THE EVENING.
PLANNING ON LOW EVNG POPS DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE. UPPER SYS STARTS
TO PULL AWAY TUE. CONTINUED FLOW OF DRY AIR ACROSS FORECAST
AREA...AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SYS...SHOULD MINIMIZE
T-STORM THREAT ON SEABREEZE TUE (ISOLATED AT BEST). WILL JUST GO
WITH SILENT 10 POP FOR NOW. DRY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES THURS-SAT AS MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD GULF COAST REGION/
SOUTHEAST. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...THUS PLANNING TO KEEP POPS ON THE LOW
END IN THIS PACKAGE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO INCREASE POPS IF IT
APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO AREA. SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN MID-UPR 80S DURING WORKWEEK...RISING
TO LWR 90S BY WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. DRIER AIR WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN MID/UPR 60S THUR/FRI...
RISING TO AROUND 70 FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF GFS AND NAM WINDS FOR NOW IN THE
SHORT TERM THROUGH THU. GFS WINDS LOOKED LITTLE BETTER WHEN COMPARED
TO CURRENT WIND FIELD SO LEANED TOWARD IT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING E-SE LATE TUE THROUGH WED AS
HIGH PRES BUILDS E OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER NRN GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG OVER NE FL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN A WATCH FOR TUE AND EXPAND INTO MORE
COUNTIES AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER GFS MOS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  87  60  90 /  10   5   0  10
SSI  66  84  67  86 /  20  10   5  10
JAX  63  87  62  88 /  20  10   5  10
SGJ  66  84  67  86 /  20  10   5  10
GNV  64  90  60  90 /  20   5   5  10
OCF  63  90  61  90 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CLAY...COLUMBIA...GILCHRIST...
     HAMILTON...MARION...PUTNAM...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...COLUMBIA...
     GILCHRIST...HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...AND UNION.

GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...WOLF
MARINE/FIRE WX...SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
530 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-051600-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
530 AM EDT MON JUN 5 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY...
INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER IN THAT AREA TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE FIRE DANGER THROUGH MID-
WEEK.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON NEXT THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK