Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...STRONG CAP OVER THE AREA WILL HOLD DOWN CONVECTION
UNTIL THE FRONT GETS CLOSER. ONE BAD THING ABOUT THAT IS THAT WITH A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE WILL BE ABLE TO
HEAT UP EVEN MORE AND SOME AREAS COULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. ALREADY
SEEING SOME LOCATIONS APPROACH 80. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WILL LIE UP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAY HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL NEED TO
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS AND MAY
ALSO LOWER POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE LINE WILL PUSH INTO THE
JACKSON METRO AROUND 20-21Z TIME FRAME AND ACROSS EASTERN MS AROUND
21-23Z. LAKE WIND ADV LOOKS GOOD AS IS WITH GLH AND GWO BOTH EASILY
GUSTING ABOVE 30 MPH AND HAVE EVEN BEEN SUSTAINED ABOVE 20 MPH. GTR
AND TVR BOTH HAVE ALSO MET CRITERIA STATUS. ZONES AND GRIDS OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-
     MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-
     MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ047.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

CAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0355 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
140955-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
0355 AM CST MON MAR 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA TODAY. THE MAIN RISK FROM THESE STORMS WILL DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BRING AN ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND HELP MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING...GENERATING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. THE BOUNDARY WAS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE NORTHEAST BEFORE THE AFTERNOON...SO HEATING...INCREASED WINDS
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUT THIS AREA AT A GREATER RISK FOR SEEING
SEVERE STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST AROUND MID
MORNING... CENTRAL PORTIONS BY MIDDAY AND THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF AROUND
30 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...SO LOOK FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE IN THE ADVISORY AREA BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY. OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY MORNING MARCH 20TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.