Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1203 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL 88D LIGHTING UP...ESPECIALLY TO OUR WEST. STRONG UPPER
TROUGH HAS INITIATED LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA THAT
EXTENDS FROM TX THROUGH LA/ARK INTO N MS AND W TN. THIS MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIP WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
DEEP ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 295-305K LEVEL WILL CONTINUE AND HAS
BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER MY CWFA AS MORE -SHRA DEVELOPING WITH
TIME. WITH MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREV
EXPECTED HAVE TAILORED POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF TODAY. HAVE CUT
POPS BACK TO CHC FOR MUCH OF E MS...WITH LIKELY IN THE I-55
CORRIDOR. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS ALONG/W OF THE MS RIVER WHERE
RAIN IS ONGOING.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL MS. SE ZONE ARE ALREADY
NEAR 70F AND MORE WARMING IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 68-74 RANGE
CAN BE EXPECTED ROUGHLY IN THE I-59 CORRIDOR. AREAS TO THE
NORTH/WEST OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE RATHER STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S. IN THE METRO...MID 60S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS GENERALLY THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
FEW AREAS OF IFR VIS. AHEAD OF RAINFALL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
SLIGHTLY TO MVFR VIS...BUT IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE. SHRA AND EMBEDDED
TSRA WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR CIGS AND IFR VIS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

GAGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
232101-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
301 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO
VICKSBURG TO GRENADA. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF THIS LINE.

A WARM FRONT ROUGHLY LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF NATCHEZ...TO
VAUGHAN...TO EUPORA WILL BECOME STATIONARY THIS EVENING. TO THE
EAST OF THIS FRONT...WARM...MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES THE STALLED WARM FRONT WILL TRANSITION
TO A COLD FRONT. WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR ALOFT...ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THE PRIMARY RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM OAK RIDGE LOUISIANA TO
EUPORA MISSISSIPPI. THE RAINS WILL CAUSE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA...OTHERWISE ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY...JANUARY 29.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.