Severe Thunderstorm Warning 406, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE AFTERNOON ONGOING AS ANTICIPATED. THE WORST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 AS BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. THE REAL UNTAPPED AREA IS ALONG AND W OF THE MS RIVER AND
THAT AREA WILL GET THEIR TURN BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OUT AS BOUNDARIES
ARE HEADING THAT WAY ALONG WITH STORM PROPAGATION. HAIL...SIG WIND
GUSTS AND TONS OF LIGHTING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH 7-8 PM.

AS FAR HEAT ADV GOES...WILL JUST LET IT RIDE AS IT WILL EXPIRE AT 7
PM. THU WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH SIMILAR TYPE HIGH TEMPS THAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING. THE BIG DIFFERENCE ON THU FROM TODAY IS THAT WE
SHOULD MIX DOWN SOME DRIER AIR AND THE SFC DEWPTS WILL FALL TO 67-69
DEGREES WHICH WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100-105. THIS WILL
FALL SHORT OF ADV CRITERIA AND WILL NOT EXTEND INTO THU.

ON THU...CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN TODAY AS THERE
WILL BE LESS INSTABILITY AND LESS FAVORABLE LIFT. TO START...MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE A TAD WARMER AND THE UPPER JET WILL DIRECTLY
OVER THE CWA WHICH IS UNFAVORABLE. GUIDANCE POPS ARE RATHER LOW AND
WILL FOLLOW. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE HOW HOT WILL THE AREA GET ON
THU. FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE N HALF 97-101
AND S HALF 95-98. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOWER RH VALUES WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AND NO ADV IS EXPECTED.  /CME/

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ON FRIDAY THE GFS/EURO AND THE NAM
INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS GRIP
OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS IT BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST THE TROUGH SWINGING
DOWN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DEEPENS OVER THE EAST. THE LATEST RUN OF
THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES. THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE
FRONT...BUT IT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. PWATS WILL BE ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND WITH
THE FOCUS OF THE BOUNDARY...SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINS WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY LOOKS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WITH
SBCAPES OF LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 5.5
C/KM AND A K-INDEX OF NEAR 35. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE POP GUIDANCE NEAR
THE I-2O CORRIDOR OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WERE THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN LOOKS...BUT WENT WITH ELSEWHERE FOR SATURDAY. ALSO WENT
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI DURING THE EVENING.

THE LATEST COUPLE OF GFS RUNS PUSH THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND BRING IN MUCH DRYER AIR. BY SUNDAY A SURFACE HIGH/RIDGE
LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO
HAVE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA.

WITH THE DRYER SOLUTION OF THE GFS WILL CUT BELOW 00Z GUIDANCE AND
GO WITH 12Z GUIDANCE WHICH IS MUCH DRYER FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WENT WITH 00Z GUIDANCE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN TO LOW FOR
HIGHS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS TREND LOOKS TO HAVE CONTINUED.
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO THE UPPER 90S AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH
FRIDAY. WILL STICK A LITTLE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD...BUT WILL STILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A GENERAL 1 TO 2
DEGREES. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  99  73  99 /  21  16   7  15
MERIDIAN      72 100  73  99 /  37  24   6  12
VICKSBURG     73  99  73  99 /  18   7   5  15
HATTIESBURG   74  98  73  95 /  25  31  16  29
NATCHEZ       74  95  74  95 /  21  24   9  34
GREENVILLE    73 101  74 100 /  10   5   4  11
GREENWOOD     73 100  74 100 /  10   5   5  11

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ025.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG  TERM: 15

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TYPO IN HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
350 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

LAZ023>026-MSZ059-060-192150-
TENSAS LA-CATAHOULA LA-CONCORDIA LA-FRANKLIN LA-JEFFERSON MS-ADAMS
MS-
350 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...

...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS...

AT 350 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM GRAND GULF...TO
ROXIE...TO CROSBIE...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
NATCHEZ BY 410 PM
VIDALIA BY 415 PM
HARRISONBURG AND JONESVILLE BY 510 PM

PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO MOVE INDOORS TO A PLACE
OF SAFETY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

AEG

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