Severe Thunderstorm Warning 369, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAIN HOT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AROUND WITH A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS OUT THERE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS OCCURRING AS A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE. THERE IS ALSO A LITTLE UPPER JET SUPPORT WITH A WEAK SHEAR
AXIS SETTING UP AND A BIT OF LEFT FRONT QUAD ACTION. WE ALSO HAVE
NEARLY 20KTS OF FLOW AT H5 WHICH IS SUPPORTING UPDRAFT ROTATION.
FINALLY...THE CRAZY HOT TEMPS ARE RESULTING IN STEEP LAPSE RATES
WHICH IS ALSO A FACTOR IN THE MORE POTENT CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO PERSISTS THROUGH MID EVENING AS IT SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOST LIKELY BE S OF I-20 BY THE START
OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND THAT IS WHERE THE BEST POPS WILL BE
LOCATED.

OVERNIGHT...SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL AND THE
CWA WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER QUICK WARM UP ON WED AND 90-95 DEGREES BY 10 AM
AND NOON. GUIDANCE IS OFFERING A BIT BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON
WED AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN TWO THINGS. FIRST...HIGHER HEAT
INDEX A FEW PLACES TODAY HAVE HELD ONTO 105-107 HIS AND I FEEL
THAT WED WILL OFFER MORE AREAS IN THIS RANGE. AS A RESULT...WILL
HOIST A HEAT ADV FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SECONDLY...THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
TO LEAD TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WE HEAT UP TO THE UPPER 90S AND
AROUND 100. WE WILL ALSO HAVE A BETTER MID-LEVEL S/W ROTATE DOWN
WITH 20KTS OF FLOW AGAIN AT H5. ALL THIS IS SETTING UP FOR A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE DAY CONVECTION WISE. AGAIN...ISO/SCT STRONG SVR
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. AS FOR
POPS...YESTERDAYS THINKING THAT GUI WAS TOO LOW AND IT WOULD LIKELY
COME UP HAS WORKED OUT AND GUI IS NOW 30-40% FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. THAT LOOKS GOOD AND WILL FOLLOW.   /CME/

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ON THURSDAY THE PERSISTENT MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS ROTATES A 40 TO
45KT U/L JET AROUND THE U/L HIGH THURSDAY...BUT DRY AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA SHOULD INHIBIT MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXCEPT JUST SOME
ISOLATED. ON FRIDAY THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE ARKLAMISS AS IT
BEGINS TO SHIFT WEST AND THE TROUGH SWINGING DOWN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY DEEPENS OVER THE EAST. BY SATURDAY THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH A SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE ARKLAMISS AND BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE
FOCUS OF THE BOUNDARY...SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE.

EXPECT THERE WILL BE GOOD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AS THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA. THE GFS INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND WITH 2 INCH PLUS PWATS AGAIN OVER THE AREA. LITTLE
WILL CHANGE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE. STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST A TWEAK HERE AND THERE MAINLY DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS AS GUIDANCE KEEPS HIGH POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
WHEN THERE REALLY IS NOT ANYTHING TO SUPPORT IT.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANOTHER THING...GUIDANCE HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN TO
LOW FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS AND THIS TREND LOOKS TO HAVE
CONTINUED. 850MB TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY LATER THIS WEEK...BUT
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT HIGHS WILL COOL INTO THE LOW 90S. LINING
UP THE FORECASTED H850/H925 TEMPS WITH CLIMO...HIGHS SHOULD STILL
REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND WILL STAY
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON
HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-20 ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
WITH THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL STICK CLOSER TO GUIDANCE...BUT WILL
STILL GO NEAR CLIMO HIGHS WHICH IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       76  98  73  98 /  14  42  20  10
MERIDIAN      74 100  73  99 /  14  33  16   8
VICKSBURG     75  99  73 100 /  12  36  24  12
HATTIESBURG   75  97  73  96 /  29  47  25  18
NATCHEZ       76  95  75  99 /  25  36  34  25
GREENVILLE    75 100  74 100 /   5  14   5   4
GREENWOOD     74 100  73  99 /   5  17   5   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-
     MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-
     MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039-MSZ040-
     MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ046-MSZ047-MSZ048-
     MSZ049-MSZ050-MSZ051-MSZ052-MSZ053-MSZ054-MSZ055-MSZ056-
     MSZ057-MSZ058-MSZ059-MSZ060-MSZ061-MSZ062-MSZ063-MSZ064-
     MSZ065-MSZ066-MSZ072-MSZ073-MSZ074.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-
     LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG  TERM: 15

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     LIGHTNING        4 WSW RAYMOND           32.24N 90.49W
07/18/2006                   HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LIGHTNING STRUCK A CHURCH AND CAUGHT IT ON FIRE. CHURCH
            IS LOCATED AT THE INTERSECTION OF DUPREE ROAD AND OLD
            PORT GIBSON ROAD.

0150 PM     HAIL             4 WSW RAYMOND           32.24N 90.49W
07/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       HINDS              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PENNY SIZED HAIL ESTIMATED AT INTERSECTION OF DUPREE ROAD
            AND OLD PORT GIBSON ROAD 4 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
            RAYMOND, MS.

&&

JFAIRLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             2 W PRESTON             32.88N 88.86W
07/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       KEMPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ESTIMATED DIME TO PENNY SIZED HAIL 2 MILES WEST OF
            PRESTON, MS.

&&

JFAIRLY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

MSZ048-049-054>056-190000-
COPIAH-HINDS-RANKIN-SIMPSON-SMITH-
523 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...DOWNBURSTS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS.
POWERFUL BURSTS OF WIND FROM 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 7
PM.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH CAN DOWN TREES. PERSONS CAUGHT OUTSIDE SHOULD
TAKE SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORMS PASS.

IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

7

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
543 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             5 ENE BOGUE CHITTO      31.46N 90.37W
07/18/2006  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY BROOKHAVEN CD IN THE
            ENTERPRISE COMMUNITY.

&&

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
545 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BOGUE CHITTO      31.45N 90.39W
07/18/2006                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND BLOCKING A FEW
            ROADS...APPROXIMATELY 5 MILES ENE OF BOGUE CHITTO.

&&

BANNAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
547 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 ENE BOGUE CHITTO      31.45N 90.39W
07/18/2006                   LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES AND BLOCKING A FEW ROADS JUST
            OUTSIDE OF BOGUE CHITTO.

&&

BANNAN