Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD WITH HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. HEAT
INDICES ALREADY 105-110. QUICK LOOK AT MAV MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUN WITH COOLER VALUES THAN WHAT
IS ACTUALLY OCCURING. MID/UPPER 70S FOR NORTHERN ZONES STILL LOOK
REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT.

/GRG/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-MSZ019-MSZ025-
     MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031-MSZ032-MSZ033-
     MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007-LAZ008-LAZ009.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-ARZ075.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
161818-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
118 PM CDT SAT JUL 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFFECT PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA...TO KOSCIUSKO MISSISSIPPI...TO COLUMBUS LINE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS GENERATING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A MINOR UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY...HELPING GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN A HOT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STRONG CONVECTION PRODUCING THE
ABOVE-LISTED CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN SOME AREAS.

...FLOODING...
THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST AIRMASS AND RATHER LIGHT ATMOSPHERIC
WINDS WILL ALLOW CLUSTERS OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREAS AFFECTED WILL LIE ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A BUDE...TO BRANDON...TO MACON LINE WHERE LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOURS TIME ARE POSSIBLE.
SUCH RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE MAJOR FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT QUICK AND TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER MAY BE
OBSERVED.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE THIS AFTERNOON TO
RESULT IN HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BASTROP
LOUISIANA...TO YAZOO CITY...TO COLUMBUS MAY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 RANGE.

A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
THESE LATTER AREAS AS THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEAT AND WARM
ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS TONIGHT WILL POSED AN INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED HEALTH PROBLEMS.

PERSONS VENTURING OUTDOORS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 105 EACH
AFTERNOON. PERSONS VENTURING OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME DURING THE AFTERNOONS SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED ILLNESSES.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...JULY 22ND.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.