Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...EVENING CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

ISOLATED AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS EXPECTED...BUT THEY ARE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTH CNTRL HILLS REGION AND WILL NEED TO UPDATE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS INLAND AND IT SHOULD HAVE INCREASING INFLUENCE AS
THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON.

FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROUNDING THE
CENTRAL CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE POSITION TODAY. THIS THROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND SEND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.
AFTER A QUIET NIGHT...SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS FORECASTED BY THE GFS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE TSTMS ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
THURSDAY. IF STORMS DEVELOP AND THEY CAN ORGANIZE...(QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW) THEN FORECASTED
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOTION WOULD BRING CONVECTION INTO THE NRN
COUNTIES THURS AFTN/EVNG. A FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS OVER
CNTRL AR AND NRN MS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA SO
STORMS WOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY IF THEY MANAGE TO MAKE IT SOUTH OF HWY
82. FOR THE SAME REASON...BELIEVE STRONG TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY
JUST TO THE NORTH AND HAVE KEPT THE HWO QUIET FOR NOW UNTIL ANY SUCH
RISK BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS. DID INCREASE MAV GUIDANCE POPS FOR THURS
AFTN/EVNG TO NEAR 20% ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR TO REFLECT ABOVE
THINKING. ALSO BOOSTED POPS A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTH WITH EXPECTATION
FOR MORE COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AFTN/EARLY EVNG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. /EC/

LONGER TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...

NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECASTER (AND MODEL) THINKING OVER LAST 12
HOURS FOR THE LONG TERM.

FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALLUDED TO ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF THE
HEIGHT FALLS JUST GRAZING THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND A LITTLE SLOWER AND A TOUCH FURTHER NORTHEAST WITH THE
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ON FRIDAY...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. ENDED UP GOING A LITTLE ABOVE
MAV POP GUIDANCE...MAINLY IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA...AS
MINOR TO MODERATE THERMAL CAPPING SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY
QUASH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR BETTER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE. BUT...EVEN
HERE...POP NUMBERS PLACED NO HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY WARM WITH WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST OFF
THE SURFACE HELPING TO KEEP THE HEAT COMING. LATEST MAV NUMBERS ARE
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND I DID NOT DIFFER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST...EVEN FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE ARKLAMISS...ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILDING BACK IN STRONGLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE REALLY HAMPERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
LOTS OF SUN AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR QUITE A WARM
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AGAIN...AS 00Z MEX SUGGESTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE CONCENTRATED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
BEGIN TO BROADEN AND EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
NATION. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SOMEWHAT DISTURBED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT TRIES TO IMPINGE ON THE ARKLATEX...DIRTYING UP HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT NEAR MY CWA. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BE CONFINED WEST OF
THE MS RIVER THROUGH THESE TWO DAYS...BUT A MORE ACTIVE SEABREEZE
ORIGINATING NEAR SOUTHWEST LA WILL GET INTO PORTIONS OF MY
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM (UP
AROUND 90)...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN LATELY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS. REMAINED NEAR 00Z MEX POPS/TEMPS...ALTHOUGH CUTTING
MONDAYS POPS 10 POINTS AND RAISING MONDAYS HIGH TEMPS A FEW POINTS
(OVER MEX) TO ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPECTED DELAY IN THE REGIONS
TRANSITION TO A WET PATTERN.

LATEST MODELS NOW DONT REALLY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRULY
WET PATTERN TO BUILD INTO THE ARKLAMISS UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. BY THIS POINT...A MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COULD EMBED
ITSELF WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WHILE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRANSPORTS JUICY GOMEX AIR
OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH PWS INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. ALL THAT WOULD DEFINE THE WET EARLY SUMMER PATTERN AROUND
HERE...BUT IT IS KIND OF FAR OUT IN MODEL-LAND TO SAY THAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH CERTAINTY. BUT...00Z MEX GUIDANCE IS A GOOD TREND TOWARD
THIS FORECAST THINKING FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CHANCE POPS AND
HIGH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER 80S. PREVIOUS FORECASTER DID NOT
STRAY FROM THESE NUMBERS...NOR DID I. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...RADIATION FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
RESULTING IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...AND PERSISTENCE
SUGGESTS WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN HOUR OR SO OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN
DENSER FOG. /EC/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM: EC
LONG TERM: BB
03

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