Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1020 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...BEGINNING OF ANOTHER ACTIVE WX DAY. SFC BOUNDARY IS
MODIFYING AND SLOWLY CREEPING NORTHWARD PUSHING THE INSTABILITY MORE
INTO THE CWA. WILL BE ISSUING A SVR TS WATCH FOR THE SE CWA SHORTLY
AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO FIRE WITH THE APPROACHING POTENT S/W MOVING
ACROSS N LA. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN NEARLY 3000 MLCAPE
ACROSS THE SOUTH ALONG WITH 40KTS 0-6KM SHEAR. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE RISK OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND
WINDS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE ENHANCED AND THERE WILL EXIST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO INCLUDE THE WATCH ALONG WITH
INCREASED POPS AND SVR WORDING FOR THE SE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW HALF MAY WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WITH THE
NEXT S/W. THIS FIRST S/W MAY BE JUST TOO FAST AND NOT ALLOW THE DEEP
MOISTURE TO GET ESTABLISHED. MORE ON THIS LATER.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101431-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
931 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AN ENHANCED RISK IS
ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO
MERIDIAN LINE. LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZE AND
LARGER...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY EVENING HELPED TO STALL A SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE
SEPARATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH AND THIS WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY
POTENT DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
FIRE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE ANYWHERE ALONG A LINE FROM TALLULAH TO
HATTIESBURG BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM. MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-55...WITH THE
WORST AND MOST INTENSE STORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
BROOKHAVEN TO MERIDIAN LINE. DUE TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT A LARGE STORM COMPLEX WILL DROP OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO
THE DELTA REGION BRINGING THE RISK FORE MORE SEVERE STORMS. AT
THIS TIME...JUST HOW MUCH SEVERE ACTIVITY THAT WILL DEVELOP IS
HARD TO DETERMINE DUE TO WHAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. AGAIN A FEW
TORNADOES CAN NOT BE EXCLUDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
ANY ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD COME TO AN
END WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS
TIME...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FROM THESE STORMS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

A POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...UNSTABLE
AIR...AND WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BRING A BROKEN LINE
AS THE FINAL ROUND OF STORMS SOUTH EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
ALL OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE GONE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AGAIN
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1111 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             NEWELLTON               32.07N 91.24W
05/08/2006  M1.00 INCH       TENSAS             LA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT LAKE BRUIN GROCERY.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1122 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     HAIL             9 SE ELLISVILLE         31.51N 89.10W
05/09/2006  M0.25 INCH       JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED IN THE OVET COMMUNITY.

&&

CAMPBELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             3 S NEW HEBRON          31.69N 89.98W
05/08/2006  M1.50 INCH       LAWRENCE           MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     HAIL             7 N PORT GIBSON         32.06N 90.98W
05/08/2006  E1.75 INCH       CLAIBORNE          MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY GAS STATION NEAR PORT GIBSON.

&&

GERARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             2 SW NEWTON             32.30N 89.18W
05/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

AEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             CROWVILLE               32.24N 91.59W
05/08/2006  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           LA   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS IN THE
            AREA AROUND CROWVILLE.

&&

GERARD