Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Jackson, MS

April 21, 2006Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 21, 2006, 2:25 PM CDT for Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Apr 21, 2006, 2:25 PM CDT (19:25 UTC)
Expired: Apr 21, 2006, 3:15 PM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Forrest County, MS, Lamar County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 123 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 21, 10:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 110 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1172 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -12 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 699 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 55 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 21, 9:30 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 21, 9:30 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
930 AM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...VERY COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION THIS
MORNING...AND NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING IT WELL. 13Z SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWED A MESOLOW OVER SE TX NW OF KPOE...WITH A WELL
DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ENE FROM IT ALONG A WISNER
LA...TO KJAN...TO MACON LINE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WELL DEFINED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND KGWX 88D VWP SHOWS IT TO BE 3-4 KFT
THICK...SO EXPECT IT TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN WX INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

KPOE 88D DATA SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SUPERCELL/BOW ECHO STRUCTURE HAS
BEEN INTENSIFYING N OF KPOE. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORT WHICH SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND
LEDBETTER TX PROFILER SHOWS 40-50 KT MID LEVEL REAR INFLOW JET
PUNCHING INTO MCS WHICH NOT SURPRISINGLY NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW.
EXPECT AS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD SOUTHERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA...WILL SEE CONVECTION CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND
INTENSIFY. MODIFIED 12Z JAN RAOB SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1300
J/KG EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN MID 70S...SO EVEN WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING IN EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
FUEL SEVERE STORMS. RUC MODEL SEEMS TO BE UNDERPLAYING THIS
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY BASED ON MODIFIED SOUNDINGS. TIMING PLACES
CURRENT STG ACTIVITY OVER LA INTO OUR SW PARISHES BETWEEN 15Z AND
16Z...AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT
PARTICULARLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
SECTIONS. THIS WELL DEFINED BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
ENHANCED ACTIVITY TODAY. SPC WRF MODEL DOES SEEM TO HAVE SOMEWHAT OF
A HANDLE ON CURRENT MCS OVER TX/LA...AND IT SHOWS STRONG INCREASE IN
CONVECTION LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF AREA...WITH INITIAL MODE APPEARING TO BE
SUPERCELLS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN 40-50
KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER AREA. EVENTUALLY SHOULD SEE CONGLOMERATION
INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE WHICH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS AREA...WRF SEEMS
A BIT SLOW IN MOVING IT ACROSS AREA BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...AND
EXPECT THAT MAIN THREAT OF SVR WX SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER TYPE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...650 TO
500 MB LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE IN 7-8 DEG RANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE
IN THIS LAYER...WOULD FAVOR SOME QUITE LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
WIND DAMAGE. COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT REPORTS OF
BOTH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS IF ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS/BOWS CAN MAINTAIN OR DEVELOP OUT OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
OVER LA AND NEAR CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS. AS FAR
AS TORNADIC POTENTIAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT
COULD BE A BIT MORE RISK IF ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WOULD BE ENHANCED.
CURRENT HWO SHOWS LESS OF A THREAT OVER DELTA...AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN DEPTH OF COOLER/MORE STABLE LAYER OVER AREA AND
NORTHERN STRATIFORM SIDE OF MCS STREAMING TOWARD THAT AREA. IF ANY
RISK DOES EXIST THERE...IT WOULD LIKELY BE FROM ELEVATED HAILERS.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

08

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 21, 5:40 AM CDT, 8 hours 45 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 21, 12:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

MSZ043-211815-
MADISON MS-
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN MADISON COUNTY...

AT 1240 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN MADISON COUNTY...JUST EAST OF
FLORA. THE STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN MADISON COUNTY
THROUGH 1 PM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 4
PM. PEOPLE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER.

AG

Local storm report, Apr 21, 1:36 PM CDT, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
136 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             1 E CANTON              32.61N 90.01W
04/21/2006  E1.50 INCH       MADISON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF HAIL CRACKING WINDSHIELDS JUST EAST OF CANTON

&&

CLB

Local storm report, Apr 21, 1:53 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             2 SE RICHLAND           32.21N 90.14W
04/21/2006  E0.88 INCH       RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0135 PM     HAIL             2 NE RICHLAND           32.25N 90.14W
04/21/2006  M0.88 INCH       RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL

0145 PM     HAIL             BRANDON                 32.28N 90.00W
04/21/2006  E0.50 INCH       RANKIN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            40 MPH WINDS ALSO REPORTED. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HWYS
            468 AND 469.

&&

AG

Local storm report, Apr 21, 1:57 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT FRI APR 21 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     HAIL             FLORENCE                32.15N 90.13W
04/21/2006  E0.50 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            REPORTED HALF INCH HAIL

&&

CLB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 20, 11:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Sunflower	12 min
Apr 21, 12:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison	41 min
Apr 21, 1:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Rankin	67 min
Apr 21, 1:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Madison	44 min
Apr 21, 2:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Scott	35 min
Apr 21, 2:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lincoln	33 min
Apr 21, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jasper, Smith	37 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.