Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Jackson, MS

000 
WGUS74 KJAN 121316
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

ARC003-017-121445-
ASHLEY AR-CHICOT AR-
808 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT FOR
CHICOT AND ASHLEY COUNTIES...

AT 806 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH 
FLOODING.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS NOW LOCATED IN AND AROUND  
CROSSETT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS CONTINUED TO REDEVELOP
ON THE WEST SIDE AND SPREAD OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF 
BOTH COUNTIES WHERE RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY.

THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND 
LOUISIANA BORDER SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 8 AND ACROSS WILMOT AND 
PARKDALE BY 9 AM CDT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3302 9209 3302 9127 3327 9120 3332 9154
      3330 9200

$$

40

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
440 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POPS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST. I KIND OF LIKE THE CHANGE FROM JUST FOCUSING ON HOW HOT IT
WILL GET. THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/TSRA ACROSS THE N SECTIONS OF THE
CWA CONTINUES TO EXPAND AS A DECENT S/W DROPS SOUTH OUT OF N AR.
THIS S/W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WE HAVE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT FOR A FEW DAYS DROPPING SEWARD. THE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE DIV ALOFT AS THE UPPER JET
SPLITS...IS CAUSING GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
FRONT. THE RESPONSE IS RESULTING IN A NICE BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG
AND N OF HWY 82. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING THIS COMPLEX IS SUCH
THAT FAVORS BACK-BUILDING AND WE HAVE SEEN THIS OCCURRING THE PAST
FEW HRS AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BACK INTO
S-CENTRAL AND SW AR. WITH SUCH A TREND...THIS COMPLEX WILL PERSIST
FOR A WHILE AND BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE DELTA REGION AND
OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MS. THE BIG ISSUE IS THAT THEY MAY
RECEIVE TOO MUCH AT ONE TIME. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES ALREADY IN A FEW PLACES AN MORE IS
COMING...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS BECOMING A BIG CONCERN. AT THIS
TIME...I WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...I WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORING THIS AND IF THINGS PICK UP AND REALLY START TO
FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIP FOR THE MORNING HRS...I WILL UPDATE AND ISSUE A
WATCH.

THE S 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IS CLEAR AS A BELL. THE 850MB
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WONT PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS UNTIL MID
DAY AND THE AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE S/W WILL GET CLOSER...BUT WILL
ALSO WEAKEN WITH TIME. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL HAVE
HEATING ON OUR SIDE AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVELS AS THE
JET-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A COL BY AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THIS
INCREASED DIV ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCT CONVECTION ALONG
WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM OUR NORTHERN COMPLEX.

WITH ALL THIS...I WILL GO WITH 70-80% POPS ACROSS THE N...WHICH I
MAY INCREASE IF TRENDS CONTINUE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND A
BLEND OF 20-50 FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. I DID DECIDE TO INCREASE
GUIDANCE POPS FROM JAN TO MEI B/C THIS REGION ALONG I-20 LOOKS VERY
FAVORABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. I DID DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE N IN
THE AFTERNOON AS THINGS LOOK TO BE ABOUT DONE THERE AS ACTIVITY
FOCUSES IN OTHER PLACES.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE NORTH WILL BE RAIN COOLED FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO RECOVER AND WARM TO THE UPPER 80S BY LATE
AFTERNOON IF CLOUD DEBRIS THINS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WILL
SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN IN THE MORNING AND QUICKLY HEAT UP. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND WET SOILS FROM PREV RAINS SHOULD SLOW THINGS DOWN
SOME...BUT THIS AREA SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEFORE
CONVECTION GETS GOING.

FOR TONIGHT...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AND I ONLY EXPECT
WHATEVER LINGERS TO BE DONE BY 8PM. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR AND THE
REGION TO FALL INTO THE 70S. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED.

SUN...WILL BE INTERESTING AS THE DISSOLVING SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL.
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING SOME ON SUN...BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE
WILL BE A LEFTOVER SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE CWA. COMBINING ALL OF
THIS...I FEEL THERE WILL BE SCT ACTIVITY AROUND AND WILL JUST GO
WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE POPS. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THAT ANY
STORMS ON SUN LOOK TO BE REALLY SLOW MOVERS. WITH 2 INCH TYPE PWS
AROUND...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE. I
HAVE SEEN THESE DAYS BEFORE AND THE HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
WIDESPREAD...BUT SOME LOCATIONS GET COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME...SOME AS HIGH AS 3-5 INCHES. AGAIN...THIS WOULD BE
VERY LOCALIZED AND IS JUST A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.    /CME/

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY FROM THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE
WASHED OUT BY MONDAY. HOWEVER THE GFS WAS HOLDING ON TO GOOD RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS...BUT GENERALLY FOLLOWED
THE MODEL TRENDS. THE MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION SEEMS TO STAY IN
PLACE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD FOR THE FIRST FEW
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND TUESDAY
WHERE THE MODEL MAINTAINS GOOD CHANCE POPS. A COLD FRONT AND
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. VERY FEW
BOUNDARIES HAVE MOVED ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA SO FAR THIS
SUMMER...SO WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT WILL HAPPEN THIS SYSTEM.
ANYWAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND THE BOUNDARY DROPS
DOWN INTO THE CWA. DRIER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION..WITH THE
DEWPOINTS VALUES AT LEAST 10-15 DEGREES LESS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THE NEW GUIDANCE CAME IN A LITTLE COOLER BUT THE
MODEL 925 TEMPS REMAINED IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TRIED TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS THINKING AND GO WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF THE DRIER AIR MAKES IT TO THE CWA...THEN
LOW TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 60S. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE THE LOWER 70S
FOR THE AREA. POPS WERE LOW FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE
BOUNDARY STALLING AND REMAINING THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOLLOWED THE MODEL TRENDS WITH THE
RAIN...BUT WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE NO REAL CHANGES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       92  73  92  73 /  32  16  44   7
MERIDIAN      94  72  92  72 /  47  27  48   8
VICKSBURG     94  73  93  73 /  23  16  41   8
HATTIESBURG   96  74  92  74 /  30  14  58  22
NATCHEZ       92  74  92  74 /  35  12  60  11
GREENVILLE    89  72  94  74 /  76   5  44   6
GREENWOOD     89  71  92  74 /  79   5  45   7

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM: CME
LONG  TERM: 07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
523 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131023-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
523 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLOODING...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AREA HAS SEEN LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS THROUGH MID MORNING AND THIS MAY RESULT IN AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE FOCUS OF THIS
EARLY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WITH
THE HEAVIES AMOUNTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION.

BY AFTERNOON...THE MORNING COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE GONE AND THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON ACTIVITY
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT BECAUSE OF THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF I-55 AND MAY BRING A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ANY STORM.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
MAY BE JUST RIGHT AFTER MORNING RAINS...A NEARBY FRONT AND THEN
CLEARING SKIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...A DENSE
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR AREAS
TO SEE SOME FOG WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.