Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 242327
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

INC131-181-250000-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-060525T0000Z/
PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
725 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM
EDT(700 PM CDT) FOR WHITE AND PULASKI COUNTIES...

AT 722 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM
WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTH OF
MONTICELLO...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO 
WINAMAC...STAR CITY...LAWTON...MONTICELLO...BUFFALO AND IDAVILLE.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING(1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING) FOR NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4083 8697 4091 8695 4093 8692 4108 8687
      4114 8683 4112 8648 4092 8656 4091 8659
      4078 8661 4075 8665 4075 8675 4073 8678
      4064 8680 4067 8709 4081 8709

$$

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 242349
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
747 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

INC131-181-242357-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0056.000000T0000Z-060525T0000Z/
PULASKI IN-WHITE IN-
747 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WHITE AND PULASKI COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED 
OUT OF THE AREA...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING(1000 PM CDT WEDNESDAY EVENING) FOR NORTHWESTERN
INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.

LAT...LON 4083 8697 4091 8695 4093 8692 4108 8687
      4114 8683 4112 8648 4092 8656 4091 8659
      4078 8661 4075 8665 4075 8675 4073 8678
      4064 8680 4067 8709 4081 8709

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
635 EDT WED MAY 24 2006

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD THIS EVENING AND
INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #388 FOR WESTERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THROUGH 11 PM EDT...10 PM CDT. COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
IN REGION OF HIGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND 500MB VORTICITY
SHEAR AXIS. STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED IN NATURE AS THEY CROSS THE
INDIANA STATE LINE DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...METAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAPID INFLUX OF MOISTURE ALONG
AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONVECTION. COMPLEX ALREADY INVOLVING INTO
LINEAR MODE AS IT ADVANCES EAST. GIVEN INCREASED MOISTURE AND STORM
ORGANIZATION...BELIEVE LINE WILL MOST LIKELY MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
AS IT CROSSES OVER WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. SEVERAL
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL UPSTREAM IN ILLINOIS. GIVEN INCREASE LINEAR
MODE OF CONVECTION...FEEL WIND THREAT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWS CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WITH SOUTHWARD TRAILING MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING INTO EASTERN TEXAS.
THE CONTINUED EASTERN PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER FOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
INDIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
FEATURE OUTRUNS ITS SOURCE REGION OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FIRING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
IN REGION OF ENHANCED THETA E GRADIENT AND STRENGTHENING 925MB LOW
LEVEL JET. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NAM MODEL FOR MOVEMENT OF ABOVE
MENTIONED FEATURES AS THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO SUFFER SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVERNIGHT. USING THE NAM AS
GUIDANCE...EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/PROPAGATE
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT ALONG ADVANCING THETA E RIDGE
AXIS AND NOSE OF 40+ KNOT 925MB LOW LEVEL JET. TRIED TO GET A LITTLE
MORE SPECIFIC WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT BY SHOWING A GENERAL WEST TO
EAST TREND OF POPS. ALSO...TEMPTED TO GO LIKELY BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH ABOUT OVERALL COVERAGE. SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT APPEARS
MINIMAL WITH LIMITED MID TO UPPER LEVEL WIND DYNAMICS AND RELATIVELY
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL. HOWEVER...CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORT. LOWS TONIGHT WHERE
LEFT UNCHANGED IN THE LOWER 60S.

ON THURSDAY...OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH
OFF TO THE EAST OUT OF THE REGION. VERY TEMPTED TO GO DRY THROUGH
THE MORNING (MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS FORECASTER HAD MENTIONED) BUT
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CHANCE POPS FOR ANY POSSIBLE DECAYING ACTIVITY
THAT MAY SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IS JUST HOW MUCH SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER AS DRY
SLOT PIVOTS THROUGH. THIS WILL GREATLY DICTATE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO DRIVE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. AS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...DUE EXPECT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS NORTHERN
PLAINS MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW APPROACHES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL GREATLY HINGE ON AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY PRESENT AS ONCE AGAIN WIND FIELDS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FEEL NAMS LOW 70 DEWPOINTS AND 4000+ J/KG CAPE
IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS OVERDONE.
WILL SIDE WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFS. EVEN THIS PREDICTS NEARLY
2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPCS DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ALONG AND EAST OF A CASSOPOLIS
MICHIGAN TO CHALMERS INDIANA LINE. AGREE WITH THIS ASSESSMENT AS
THIS AREA WILL HAVE BEST CHANCE TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND MID LEVEL LOW APPROACH. GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT BULK
LAYER SHEAR...FEEL PULSE TYPE SEVERE WEATHER IS PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF DOWNBURST SEVERE WINDS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BASICALLY LEFT UNCHANGED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 70S.

LONG TERM...
BOTH A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA. OF COURSE THIS IS BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW
BEING JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST BY 12Z FRIDAY. THEN ON FRIDAY THE
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL JUST GIVE US SOME RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES...CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING BETTER THURSDAY NIGHT THAN FRIDAY IN
TERMS OF MOISTURE/MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY. THE SOUNDINGS
BECOME DRIER AS THE DEAR WEARS ON FRIDAY. BUFKIT ALSO SHOWS
INSTABILITY INDICES THE GREATEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND BASICALLY NON
EXISTENT ON FRIDAY...LENDING TO THUNDER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
NOT FRIDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO LOWER FOR FRIDAY THAN THEY ARE FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. DID NOT REALLY SEE ANYTHING TO WARRANT ANY CHANGES
TO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
IN...MAKING THE WEATHER DRY. THEN BASICALLY FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...OUR CWA WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA. WITH
THE JET STREAM STAYING TO THE NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH SUCH WARM
TEMPERATURES...THINGS WILL HAVE TO BE KEPT AN EYE ON TO SEE IF ANY
DAY WILL NEED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS PUT INTO THE FORECAST.
LEFT NEXT WEEK DRY. THE 06Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOW THE 12Z RUN
HAS NO SUCH THING. NO CONSISTENCY YET.

AVIATION...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE IS RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT. ONGOING LINE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH WESTERN INDIANA HAS SHOWN RAPID WEAKENING TREND OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. WOULD EXPECT THIS AREA TO COMPLETELY
DIMINISH SHORTLY AS IT OUTRUNS BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE SOURCE.
HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND THETA E RIDGE BEGIN TO
NOSE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THESE INTERACT WITH MID
LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID LEVEL
CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. EXACT AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING
HARD TO PINPOINT AT THIS JUNCTURE AND AS SUCH HAVE MENTIONED JUST
VCTS AT BOTH TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD PIVOT OUT
OF THE REGION EARLY IN THE MORNING LEAVING SEVERAL HOURS OF DRY
WEATHER. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER ON
THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW APPROACHES REGION.
THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD YIELD TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BEING THAT THIS IS NEARLY 24
HOURS OUT WILL NOT MENTION SPECIFICALLY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...BOGUTH
LONG TERM...LOTHAMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
524 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-250930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
424 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006 /524 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A
LINE FROM THREE RIVERS MICHIGAN TO PERU INDIANA. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM PERU INDIANA TO HILLSDALE MICHIGAN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-250930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
524 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

HITCHCOCK