Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
705 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.AVIATION...
A VIGOROUS MID LVL S/WV OVER THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY 06Z.  AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT AT THE SFC WILL ACCOMPANY THIS S/WV.
WARM...MOIST ASCENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE WARM FRONT...COMBINED
WITH DYNAMICAL LIFT FROM THE S/WV...WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.  WILL
INTRODUCE SOME IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH KSBN AND
KFWA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT AND S/WV LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AFTER 06Z...TAF SITES SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PCPN ACTIVITY IN TERMS OF
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
IN THE WARM SECTOR.  DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN IOWA THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE TO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY 12Z...THEN INTO FAR
SRN ONTARIO BY 18Z.  A COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z.  A LOW TO MID LVL
DEFORMATION AXIS BEHIND THE SFC LOW...WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.  HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF
SITES WITH THE SHOWERS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CIGS
WILL DROP BELOW 1000 FEET.  WILL LET LATER FORECAST SHIFTS FINE TUNE
THIS POSSIBILITY.  IT WILL BE WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE IN WARM SECTOR
ACROSS MO AHEAD OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE INTO WRN MO. BROAD AXIS OF
1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPES ACROSS MO WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS. AS CONVECTION CONTINUES EWD AND HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALL
FIELDS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ANTICIPATE WARM FRONT FRONT FROM NRN
MO TO KSTL TO SW IN...WITH SFC DPS POOLED INTO THE LOWER 60S...TO
BEGIN STRONG PUSH NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AND PUSH INTO OUR SW CWA BY LATE EVENING. ALREADY SEEING INCREASED
SPEED/BACKED PROFILE AT WNCI2. NAM/SREF MUCAPES 1000 TO 1500 J/KG IN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES PROGGED 03Z-06Z OVERNIGHT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITIES 200-259 M2/S2 FOR POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED TRACK SUPERCELLS. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT BUT WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO TIMING AS IT
CONTINUES TO BE PUSHED FURTHER AND FURTHER BACK AND ANOTHER CHANCE
OF WIND WITH SQUALL LINE OR DECAYING SQUALL LINE POTENTIAL WITH
FRONT WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL NOT PROVIDE MUCH DETAIL IN GRIDS. FOR
MONDAY STRONG CAA WITH WIND GUST/MOMENTUM TRANSFER POTENTIAL TO AT
LEAST TO 925MB/30KTS. LARGE AREA OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITH 8H
TROF AXIS TRANSLATING THROUGH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHRA AND
CONTINUED WITH TIMING OF LIKELY POPS DOWN TO CHANCE WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON AS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE MOVES EWD. 1000-850MB THICKNESS
NEARLY SUPPORT MIX RASN BUT WITH INITIAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH FULL MELT SCENARIO AND DEFER TO ONE MORE MODEL
RUN.

LONG TERM...
NOT VERY MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THE MAIN THING THAT WAS LOOKED AT WAS THE TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM FOR LATER THIS WEEK. IF PRECIP NEEDED TO BE ADDED TO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON NOW OR NOT...AND WHAT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
IS GOING TO BE. GFS...GEM...ECMWF ARE FAIRLY CLOSE WITH THE POSITION
OF THE SURFACE LOW AT 00Z FRIDAY. GEM AND ECMWF ARE THE CLOSEST WITH
HAVING THE LOW IN NEBRASKA AND THE GFS IS JUST A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF
THAT. THE GFS IS NOW DEVELOPING SOME QPF AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY IS STILL PROGGED TO
BE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. ON THURSDAY...AND IS BRINING THAT QPF INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GEM ALSO HAS A LARGE AREA OF QPF
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THURSDAY SEVERAL DAYS AWAY YET...WANT TO
SEE SOME CONSISTENCY WITH THIS QPF OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT.
THESE MODELS ARE SITUATING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
BRING GULF MOISTURE UP INTO THE CWA. BUT JUST HELD OFF ON QPF FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NOW. ALSO DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
IF THE LOW TAKES ITS TIME MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA...THEN WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WITH THE LAKES
AROUND...CLOUDS AND PRECIP COULD TAKE THEIR TIME IN MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA AND OUR CWA COULD SEE PRECIP INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS ALL
ALMOST A WEEK AWAY YET...NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR NOW...BUT THE SPEED OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR ANY POSSIBLE UPDATES TO THE
FORECAST.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-
     LMZ046.

&&

AVIATION...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....98

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
109 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-031715-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1209 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006 /109 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF ROUTE 30.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
MONTICELLO AREA. THE STORMS WILL THEN QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL RADIO AND TELEVISION
FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...BUT IT
REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-031715-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
109 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST
GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WAVES AROUND 10
FEET.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP