Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Northern Indiana

000 
WWUS53 KIWX 041031
SVSIWX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
629 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

MIC023-041045-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0210.000000T0000Z-061004T1045Z/
BRANCH MI-
629 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 AM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BRANCH COUNTY...

AT 627 AM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH BUTLER...OR ABOUT
11 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLDWATER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

AT 615 AM EDT...LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LARGE TREE DOWN IN UNION 
CITY. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AS WELL AS HAIL TO PENNY 
SIZE CAN STILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. CHILDREN OUTSIDE WAITING 
FOR THE BUS SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. 

IF YOU HAVE SEVERE WEATHER TO REPORT...YOU CAN CALL YOUR LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4207 8508 4195 8513 4192 8484 4207 8484

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

.TODAY AND TONIGHT.
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FIRE ACROSS NRN IL INTO NE IA IN 1000-850MB
THETA-E AXIS AS LLJ BEGINS TO VEER. KILX VWP INCREASED TO 260/45KT
AT 3KFT MSL. ELEVATED MUCAPES IN THIS CORRIDOR ON ORDER OF 2000-3000
J/KG. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AM WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SWD MOVING MCS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING NRN IL BORDER AND WITH INCREASING SFC
PRES FALLS OVER SW ONTARIO AND RAPIDLY MOVING ML SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX
MOVES TO MI THUMB BY 15 UTC. TIMED LIKELY POPS THROUGH ENTIRE CWA
TODAY WITH ONLY SRN/SERN MENTION OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY
BECOME MORE SFC BASED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME RISK OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THIS AREA WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...THOUGH
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VEERING IN 925-500 MB LAYER SHOULD KEEP RISK
RELATIVELY LOW AND WILL ONLY MENTION POTENTIAL IN HWO. NON-DIURNAL
TEMPS WITH ENTIRE CWA WITHIN WARM SECTOR THIS AM NEAR 70
DEGREES...FALLING THROUGH 60S NORTH...WITH EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
SOUTH NEAR 80...MORE IN LINE WITH SLOWER NAMWRF TIMING AS GFS
WEAKENS SECONDARY LOW NOW OVER EASTERN IA TOO FAST...GIVEN STRENGTH
OF ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER NW IA. MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
BEHIND FRONT TONIGHT WITH PWATS FALLING TO NEAR 1/3 INCH AND SFC DPS
TO AT LEAST LWR 40S BY 12 UTC THU. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY MIXED BL SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG FORMATION AND WILL HOLD ON MENTION...BUT SOME POTENTIAL NEED
LATER ESPECIALLY NE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN FOR A FEW DAYS BRINGING A RETURN
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME CONCERN REMAINS REGARDING
FROST POTENTIAL EARLY FRI AM AS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD. SFC FLOW
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT NE WHICH CAN BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN SOME OF THE MORE EFFICIENT
DRAINAGE AREAS. GRIDS HAVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FAR NE TO MID 40S
SE. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SW BUT NO SIG CHANGE AS MODELS
VARY ON AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND SPEED OF RETURN OF WARMER AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. NO MENTION OF FROST AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS.

AS NOTED WAA WILL KICK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE IN
THE PLAINS. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +7 TO +9 C BY 12Z SAT WITH
GFS CONTINUING THE CLIMB INTO THE +12 TO +14 C ALLOWING FOR A WARM
WEEKEND TO SETUP. NO CHANGES MADE FRI NGT INTO SAT NGT AS FORECAST
ON TRACK WITH GUIDANCE.

QUESTIONS STILL EXIST REGARDING THE NEXT FRONT SET TO AT LEAST
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE VARYING ON HOW
FAR...IF AT ALL...IT MAKES IT INTO THE FA. GFS/UKMET PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH ON MONDAY BUT WASH IT OUT AS IT DOES. ECMWF BRINGS THE FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUN INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT THEN STALLS IT OUT AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. GEM
BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES IT TO THE EAST
COAST BY 00Z TUE. IN ADDITION TO TIMING ISSUES EXACT AMOUNT OF MSTR
TO WORK WITH REMAINS QUESTIONABLE. S-SW FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE
WEEKEND TO ALLOW FOR DEWPTS TO CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND POSSIBLY THE
50S. ENOUGH UNCERTANTITY REMAINS TO MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST INTO
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES MAY RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS MON NGT INTO
TUES...BUT WITH ISSUES ALREADY NOTED WILL NOT CHANGE ANYTHING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-LMZ046.
&&

SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER