Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...
MID LVL CIRC ACRS IL SHOWING SIGNS OF OPENING UP THIS AFTN PER
VAPOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING CONV DVLPMNT
COINCIDENT W/MID LVL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH WITHIN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WILL BACK EVENING SHRA MENTION A BIT FARTHER WEST
AS IL UPR LOW STILL WEST OF 6HR 12Z GUIDANCE PROGS AND EVEN SLOWER
TO SHIFT EWD. HWVR LOSS OF INSOLATION AND STABILIZING PBL SUGGEST
THUNDER NOT NEEDED PAST 00Z. OTHERWISE CLRG XPCD WEST HALF AFT
MIDNIGHT W/DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE MINS
CONSIDERABLY LWR THEN XOVER TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S AND STRONGLY
SUGGESTIVE OF DENSE FOG DVLPMNT LATE ESP IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YET THIS AFTN/EVE. WILL INSERT A PATCHY MENTION
AT THIS POINT GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING DEGREE OF MID/HIGH
CLD EROSION. OTHERWISE CONTD CLRG WED W/WK WAA DVLPG IN THE AFTN FVR
WARMER SPECTRUM OF GUIDANCE TEMPS AND IN LINE W/CURRENT GRIDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
NO CHANGES PLANNED DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL INCONSISTENCIES IN LATER
PERIODS WITH FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTROL
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND BEGIN TO ENTER THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE UKMET BRING THE FRONT THROUGH FRI NGT...THE
EURO SAT/SAT EVE AND GFS WELL INTO SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BASED
ON 12Z RUN. MODELS HAVE BEEN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE SE TOO
QUICKLY IN PAST WEEKS AND SUSPECT GFS IS CATCHING ONTO THIS AND
ADJUSTING. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE FACT OF SLOWER AND
SLOWER SOLUTIONS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...WHAT IS NOW TS
FLORENCE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST WITH ITS OVERALL STRENGTH
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE ABOVE REFERENCED HIGH THAT WILL LIKELY
BE THE KEY FACTOR IN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IF GFS WAS BOUGHT AT FACE
VALUE...SIG CHANGES WOULD BE NEEDED FOR MANY ELEMENTS.
HOWEVER...SINCE OTHER MODELS STILL SHOWING THE QUICKER SOLUTION FOR
THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY WILL MAINTAIN CHC SHOWERS ON SAT. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE THEN CHANGES TO MOVE OR EXTEND POPS AS WELL AS OTHER
ELEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION/UPDATE...
UPR LOW OVR WC IL TAKING A SLOW TURN SEWD NOW TWD SRN IN. MID LVL
TROUGH AXIS INTO NW IN ATTM AND INTERACTING W/LK BREEZE W/BKN LINE
OF CONVN. CONTD SFC BASED HEATING AND DIFF DESTABILIZATION W/COOLING
ALOFT SPREADING OVERHEAD IN ASSOCN/W WKNG MID LVL LOW SHLD EQUATE TO
BTR SPATIAL COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTN ALTHOUGH CLEAR LACK OF FORCED
ASCENT NOTED PER 12Z GUIDANCE ACRS ALL BUT FAR SRN CWA THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE XPC MAINLY VFR AT TAF SITES THROUGH EVENING ALTHOUGH XCPN
AT KSBN CURRENTLY W/VCTS NOTED ALG MID LVL TROUGH AXIS. IN
ADDN...SHLD SEE PD OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTION IN BR AGAIN TWD SUNRISE
ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF CLD CVR EROSION OVERNIGHT AND RAINFALL WILL
DICTATE MORE EXTENSIVE POTENTIAL FOR FOG IF IT CLEARS OUT ESP AT
KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HOLSTEN
LONG TERM...FISHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1032 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-060930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
932 AM CDT TUE SEP 5 2006 /1032 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF A
ELKHART TO MARION LINE WITH A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...FAR EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO ON
WEDNESDAY HOWEVER NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-060930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
1032 AM EDT TUE SEP 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE INTO MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 30
KNOT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

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