Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
420 AM EDT THU AUG 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE THIS MORNING.

AT 07Z...SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SRN
ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST INTO SRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO ILLINOIS...NRN
MISSOURI AND NRN KANSAS.  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH
THE FCST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OPERATIONAL 00Z NAM-WRF AND GFS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT FCST SITUATION.  THUS...HAVE RELIED ON THE LATEST RUC40
MODEL AND CURRENT SATELLITE...RADAR AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION FROM THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VLY INTO OUR
REGION HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  ONE OF
PARTICULAR INTEREST IS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONVECTION OCCURRING
ACRS W CNTRL ILLINOIS THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING FAIRLY
FAST...ABOUT 40 TO 50 MPH...TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS FEATURE...IN
COMBINATION WITH LOW LVL WAA/LOW LVL JET...WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACRS THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING.  ALSO...THIS WILL DEFINITELY HAVE AN IMPACT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE FCST AREA TODAY.  TO ADD INSULT
TO INJURY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED S/WV ACRS NE
KS/NW MISSOURI.  THIS SYSTEM...AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST RUC40 MODEL
IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST INTO NW INDIANA BY AROUND 18Z...PROVIDING
UPR LVL LIFT AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.  AS A RESULT OF ALL THESE
FACTORS...HAVE EMPLOYED LIKELY POPS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION TODAY.
THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE MOIST AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES.  THUS...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN
THE ZONES.  HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH ATTM IN
COLLABORATION WITH OTHER OFFICES (IND/ILN) AS CURRENT 1 HOUR FFG
VALUES ARE MAINLY IN THE 2 TO 2.3 INCH RANGE.  HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE ISSUED.  AS FOR HIGH TEMPS
TODAY...IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN WARM START...AND HIGH
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.  HAVE TWEAKED PREVIOUS
FORECAST VALUES SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTHWEST TO
THE UPPER 80S SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...ONCE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV RIPPLES BY TO THE EAST...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HAVE A MORE PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR AREA.
WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS IN THE SERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWFA...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON TIMING OF MENTIONED SYSTEMS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM....
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT THE PERIOD DRY EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE
OF STORMS MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH COOL AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE AREA. THE NEW 03/00Z MEX FOLLOWED THE 02/00Z KEEPING HIGHS ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. THIS WARM PATTERN APPEARS ON TRACK WITH 850 MB
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE 16C. TIMING OF COOL FRONT MONDAY ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF STORMS STILL APPEARS ON TRACK. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL SHIFT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
RIDGE TO ALLOW SOME COOLER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS COOLER PATTERN IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE NEW MEX MOS
WITH TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN GIVEN THE HIGH CORRELATION WITH THE ANALOGS OF
GFS RUNS...GFS ENSEMBLE ANALOGS AND THE CANADIAN ANALOGS THAT MATCH
THIS PATTERN.
&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.

LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...SKIPPER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1113 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-030930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1013 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006 /1113 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 102 TO 108
DEGREE RANGE TODAY.  A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM
EDT...7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM MEDARYVILLE INDIANA TO WAUSEON OHIO. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
INDIANA WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THESE
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-030930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
1113 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO
3 FEET WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS. SILVER BEACH NEAR SAINT JOSEPH
MICHIGAN HAS RAISED A RED FLAG FOR HAZARDOUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS DUE
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF RIP CURRENTS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY...PRODUCING
2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES.  THESE WAVES MAY CAUSE AN INCREASED RISK IN RIP
CURRENTS.

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT...PRODUCING WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM THESE WAVES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

HITCHCOCK

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