Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1255 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

...ANOTHER ACTIVE SVR WX DAY FROM LT MORNING INTO THIS AFTN ACRS
MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

.AVIATION...
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CROSSING NORTHERN INDIANA AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN
THRUST IS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...BUT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS QUITE LIKELY AT FORT WAYNE TERMINAL. KEPT THUNDER
MENTION IN FORT WAYNE TAF. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE SOUTH
BEND TERMINAL BY 18Z WITH NO MORE THUNDER EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE TIME PERIOD.  CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN VFR FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT WILL DROP TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THUNDERSTORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF BOTH TERMINALS BY 23Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS EVENING.  THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF FOG LATER TONIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT HAVE ELECTED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER COMPLEX MESOSCALE SITUATION DVLPG THIS AM W/UPSCALE TRENDS
NOTED IN SMALL BUT SVR FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW INTO WRN IL.
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED W/STEEP MID
LVL LAPSE RATE PLUME STILL IN PLACE ACRS MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES OVERTOP
SEASONABLY MOIST BNDRY LYR. QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL BNDRY EXTENDS FM
CNTRL LK HURON BACK SW INTO WK SFC FNTL WAVE ANALYZED OVR NE MO AS A
REFLECTION OF ROBUST MCV ACRS NE KS SPAWNED FM LAST NIGHTS CONVN.

AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF IL ACTIVITY WILL HEAT RAPIDLY THIS MORNING
UNDERNEATH THIN CIRRUS SHIELD AND WARM START. GIVEN WELL DVLPD COLD
POOL IN PLACE AND DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR XPC THIS CLUSTER WILL
CONT TO INTENSIFY AS IT GRAVITATES EWD ACRS THE REMAINDER OF IL
THROUGH THIS MORNING. THUS XPC ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACRS IN/OH PORTIONS OF CWA BY LT MORNING INTO
MID AFTN. WILL UPDATE RELEVANT PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE RUC40 AND 00Z NAM-WRF FOR THIS FCST
PACKAGE.

A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 08Z...THE FIRST COLD FRONT THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION WAS
LOCATED FROM SE ONTARIO...ACRS NRN MICHIGAN...THEN INTO FAR SE
WISCONSIN.  THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY...BEING LOCATED
FROM ABOUT DETROIT...TO GOSHEN...IN...TO KANKAKEE IL BY 18Z...THEN
FROM NEAR CLEVELAND...TO CNTRL INDIANA...THEN INTO CNTRL ILLINOIS BY
00Z THIS EVENING.  THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE AS EXHIBITED BY CURRENT MUCAPES OF 1000 J/KG TO 2000 J/KG.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACRS THE REGION...A WEAK S/WV WILL APCH FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...MOVING ACRS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.  ALTHOUGH
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...THE S/WV AND THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (SBCAPES NEAR LIMA
OHIO ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTN) WILL BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT MAY END ACRS THE FAR NW CWFA THIS
AFTN AS DRIER AIR FROM 925 MB TO 850 MB MOVES INTO THIS AREA.  DO
NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO GO DRY JUST YET...SO WILL LAYER POPS FROM
20 PERCENT FAR NW TO 50 PERCENT SE.  THIS WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
FINE TUNE FCST.  HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE
LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE TO THE UPPER 80S ACRS THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST.

FOR TONIGHT...FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH.  ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL APCH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...MOVING INTO THE FCST
AREA AFTER 06Z...AND THEN INTO THE SRN CWFA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...WHILE NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF PCPN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.  WILL LAYER POPS FROM 20
PERCENT NORTH TO 50 SOUTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS...THEN JUST A 30
PERCENT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
FILTER INTO THE REGION.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

LONG TERM...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME IS A DRY ONE...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO BE THE WETTEST MODEL FOR FRIDAY
AND OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS IT HAS KEPT THE MAIN PART OF THE RAIN TO
THE SOUTH. THE GFS IS JUST CREEPING SOME QPF INTO THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA. GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE YET
FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING. SO WITH A CHANCE
THAT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE GOING ON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...HAVE PUT IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA WHICH COLLABORATES WELL WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS IS SHOWING A FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH MICHIGAN AND CANADA TO THE
NORTH NEXT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT FOR RIGHT NOW TO HAVE NO
AFFECT ON THE CWA. THE ONLY OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT GFS IS SHOWING TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE DRY FOR OUR
CWA...SO LEFT THIS TIME FRAME DRY. WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE
PATTERN FOR THIS COMING WEEK...850MB TEMPERATURES FOR EACH AFTERNOON
ARE ROUGHLY SIMILAR. SO NO BIG RANGES IN MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECASTED TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

UPDATE...HOLSTEN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HICKMAN
LONG TERM...BML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
521 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-230930-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
421 AM CDT THU JUN 22 2006 /521 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HILLSDALE
MICHIGAN TO GOSHEN INDIANA TO KNOX INDIANA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING FROM ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LIMA OHIO TO MONTICELLO INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-061-230930-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST JOSEPH MI OUT TO MID LAKE-
521 AM EDT THU JUN 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX/PROGRAMAREAS/MARINE/INDEX.PHP

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