Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

.AVIATION...THE MAIN PROBLEM FOR AVIATION WILL BE A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA. THEY WILL ENTER
WESTERN INDIANA AROUND 01Z AND EXIT EAST AROUND 06Z. THESE STORMS
HAVE A HISTORY OF VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. THE STORMS ARE JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS WITH THE
STORMS WILL DROP INTO THE MVFR LEVELS WITH VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY IFR.
CONDITIONS WILL GO VFR AFTER FROPA. WRAP AROUND MVFR CIGS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO AREA FROM THE NW AFTER 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 205 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006)

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPR PTN TO REMAIN RATHER ENERGETIC...BUT PROGRESSIVE
OVR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPR SYS CURRENTLY OVR THE PLAINS WL MOV EWD
IN THE LOCAL AREA BY EARLY MON MORN...AND INTO THE NERN PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY BY TUES NIGHT...EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT A LRG UPPR LO IN THAT
AREA. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERAL SITUATION. FCST
FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS/SEVERE WX EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
INCOMING SYS.

IN THE NR TERM...RADAR INDICATING SCT SHWR/TSTM ACTVTY ACRS THE AREA
IN WAA ZONE. APPEARS MAIN UPPR SUPPORT WITH THIS SYS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING WRN MO...AND MODELS BRING THIS ENERGY RAPIDLY THRU THE
LOCAL AREA IN THE 01Z-07Z TIME FRAME. CDFNT LINGERS A LTL FARTHER
BEHIND...PROB NOT REACHING THE OH BORDER TIL 10Z-11Z OR SO. LOOKS
LIKE WHATEVER DVLPS OVR MO IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WL BE PUSHING THRU
DURG THE 01Z-07Z TIME FRAME...WITH ADDITIONAL ACTVTY PSBL ALONG THE
CDFNT AFT THAT. OVERALL PARAMETERS STILL SUPPORT A SVR THREAT...
MAINLY AFT 01Z...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OVR THE SWRN CWA. WIND
SHEAR LOOKS TO MAXIMIZED ACRS THE SRN PARTS OF STATE IN THE 06Z-12Z
TIME FRAME...SO SVR THREAT MAY LINGER WELL INTO THE EARLY MORN HRS
OF MON...IF TSTMS CAN DVLP ALONG CDFNT.

IN THR LTR PDS...LOOKS LIKE THERE WL BE SOME WRAP AROUND PCPN BEHIND
THE SYS THRU EARLY MON AFT...ESPECIALLY IN THE N. WL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE N...WITH CHC POPS FARTHER S. PCPN THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
LTR IN THE AFT ON MON AS SYS PULLS AWAY. LO LVL WIND FIELDS OFF THE
MODELS SUGGEST MAYBE SOME 35KT SFC GUSTS ON MON AS WELL. IMPROVING
CONDS XPCTD MON NIGHT/TUES AS HI PRES BLDS IN.

UNDER WAA MOST OF THE NIGHT...TEMPS WL PROB HOLD OR RISE INTO THE
60S FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...WITH READING DROPPING INTO THE
45-50 DEG RANGE BEHIND CDFNT. LTL TEMP RISE XPCTD ON MON UNDER STG
CAA. NGM MOS TEMPS IN THE LTR PDS LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME BASED
ON PROGGED LO LVL THICKNESSES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HAINES
FORECAST...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-031100-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
136 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006 /236 PM EDT SUN APR 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...MAINLY FROM ABOUT 900 PM EDT...800 PM CDT...
TO ABOUT 500 AM EDT...400 AM CDT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
STORMS DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 900 PM EDT...800 PM CDT
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR
FUTURE WEATHER TRENDS AND STATEMENTS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)

JAS