Severe Thunderstorm Warning 317, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

SFC WAVE WAS OVER CENTRAL ILAT 18Z.  A FEW SCT TSRA WERE NORTH OF
LAF IN THE IWX CWA.  THE SFC WAVE WAS ALONG A FRONT THAT WAS FROM
JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO TO SW MISSOURI.  THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...BIG QUESTION IS WHEN AND WHERE WILL THUNDER DEVELOP.  SPC
MESO DATA SHOWS THE CAP THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE HAS BEEN
ERODING.  WOULD EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT IN
THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AREA.  LAPS LIS ARE -2 TO -3 OVER MOST OF
THE CWA.  AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDER AS THE
FRONT PASSES WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS EVENING.
WILL CONFINE LIKELY POPS TO AFTER 00Z.  RUC STILL SHOWS 00Z-03Z AS
THE BEST TIME FOR DEVELOPMENT AND WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THAT
AS IT HAS BEEN HANDLING THE CURRENT CONVECTION THE BEST.

THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...H5 HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER TX/OK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL PUT INDIANA IN NW FLOW.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT BELOW NORMAL FOR THURS AND FRI...NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND
70 AND LOWS AROUND 50 THIS TIME OF YEAR...THEN START TO WARM TO MORE
NORMAL READINGS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST TOWARD
INDIANA THIS WEEKEND.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE
EXTENDED AS THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH UPPER FEATURES AND MOISTURE.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS THIS UPPER RIDGE KEEPS MOST
SYSTEMS EITHER TO OUR NORTH OR SOUTH.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE
FINALLY BREAKS DOWN.  MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS A QUESTION AT THAT
TIME SO THERE IS NO REASON TO RAISE POPS FOR THEN.  AFTER FROPA ON
MONDAY THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS DRY AND SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS...

AS OF 16Z A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NE INDIANA INTO CENTRAL IL.
A WEAK SFC LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL. THIS
LOW AND AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING
UPPER WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE SCT TSRA ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING IS AN ISSUE SINCE THE LATEST LAPS SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A
CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 850-750MB THAT SHOULD HOLD OFF STORMS
UNTIL AFTER 18Z AT LAF AND AFTER 20Z FOR HUF/IND/BMG. IN FACT, IT
APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHC FOR PRECIP MAY OCCUR ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITHIN THE REGION OF STRONGER 850-700MB
FRONTOGENESIS. EXACT TIMING OF ANY TSRA REMAINS UNCERTAIN GIVEN LACK
OF STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT AND CAPPING INVERSION. PRECIP
SHOULD END AROUND 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT THEREAFTER.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO THE NNE THROUGH THE FIRST 8 HOURS OF
THE TAF FCST.
&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CO
PUBLIC...SALLY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1117 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-051530-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
1017 AM CDT WED OCT 4 2006 /1117 AM EDT WED OCT 4 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IT APPEARS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 4 OR 5 PM AND IMPACT THOSE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70. ANY RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
536 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

INZ021-042200-
CARROLL-
536 PM EDT WED OCT 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
CARROLL COUNTY THROUGH 600 PM EDT. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE HALF INCH
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM INCLUDE RADNOR...OCKLEY AND CUTTER.