Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 180036
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
836 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

INC121-180046-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-060918T0115Z/
PARKE-
836 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PARKE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3988 8701 3976 8694 3978 8670 4003 8679

$$

INC107-133-180115-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-060918T0115Z/
MONTGOMERY-PUTNAM-
836 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 833 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROACHDALE...OR ABOUT
14 MILES SOUTH OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LADOGA AROUND 845 PM EDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3988 8701 3976 8694 3978 8670 4003 8679

$$

JB

000 
WWUS53 KIND 180051
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
848 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

INC107-133-180058-
/O.CAN.KIND.SV.W.0301.000000T0000Z-060918T0115Z/
MONTGOMERY-PUTNAM-
848 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 848 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSES A SEVERE THREAT. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 915 PM EDT.

LAT...LON 3988 8701 3976 8694 3978 8670 4003 8679

$$

JB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 180000Z TAF ISSUANCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INDIANA ILLINOIS BORDER
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
EVENING.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF A KSTL-KRFD LINE.  MODELS INDICATE THE COLD
FRONT WILL TEMPORARILY SLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS ALSO
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
ALONG FRONT OVERNIGHT.  PRECIPITATION SHOULD END OVER WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AT KIND
AND KBMG PRECIP MAY NOT END UNTIL END OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WE MAY EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS OF
IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PUBLIC FCST DISCUSSION FOR AFTERNOON ZONES AND GRID FORECASTS...

FORECAST FOCUS CENTERS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.

AS OF 16Z....UPPER LOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
SFC COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WI INTO EASTERN OK. ONE DISTINCT SFC
WAVE WAS ALSO EVIDENT ACROSS EASTERN OK/NW AR. WV SATELLITE SHOWS
THE MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE LANE STREAMING NE INTO
THE MS VALLEY. 12Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE AROUND 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ETA ARE 30KTS TOO
WEAK WITH THE 250MB WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ETA ALSO IS
TOO DRY WITH THE PRECIP H2O VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HANDLING OF A PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AT LEAST
TWO SFC WAVES. REGARDLESS, ALL SUGGEST HIGH PRECIP CHCS THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY MON.

TONIGHT...UPPER JET AND DEVELOPING 35-40KT LLJ WILL ACT TOGETHER
WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED TO
IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND JUST IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS ARE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. THERE
IS A SMALL DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS THE FAR WEST THROUGH 06Z BUT
DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED SVR ACTIVITY TONIGHT THIS FAR EAST. ALSO
CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER OVERNIGHT RAINS SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE NW HALF OF THE CWA WHILE THE LOWEST FFG VALUES RESIDE ACROSS
THE SE. FOR NOW I WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT VIA THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE PRECIP ON MONDAY MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR/NORTHWEST OF ANY WEAK SFC
WAVES THAT MAY BE MOVING NE ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE CURRENT AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO OUR SW ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, I WILL RAISE PRECIP CHCS TO CATEGORICAL
ALONG WITH A MENTION OF HVY RAIN IN THE FCST. IT APPEARS THAT
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH LATER MON. LINGERING PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST MON NIGHT SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH CONTINUED CAA.
MOS TREND HAS BEEN COLDER OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS. I FAVOR A MOS BLEND
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S GIVEN WIND AND WET GROUNDS TO MODIFY TEMPS
SOMEWHAT.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW BENEATH THE UPPER COLD POCKET SHOULD LEAD TO
MOCLDY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDS TUES. ETA/MAV MOS BLEND OF
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AGREES WITH THE CURRENT FCST.

EXTENDED...COLDEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR WEDS AM WITH 40-45 MOST AREAS.
OTHERWISE, MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE PRECIP CHCS LATER FRI THROUGH
SAT SINCE MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS NOW AGREE ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE. ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CURRENTLY GOING ON ACRS MO INTO SWRN IL MOVG TO THE NE.
SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WL MAKE IT THIS FAR E AS
UPPR SUPPORT IS WANING AND AMS STILL RATHER STABLE IN THIS AREA. IF
CONVECTION HOLDS TOGETHER...IT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE KHUF/KLAF
TERMINALS AROUND 180000Z. APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED CONVECTION WL DVLP ACRS THE AREA LT TONIGHT AS SFC WV
RIDES UP INCOMING FNT AND 35-40KT 850MB JET NOSES INTO THE STATE FM
THE SW. BASED ON LIFTING MECHANISMS OFF THE MODELS...THREAT COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 180300Z OVR THE KHUF/KLAF TERMINALS...BUT MORE
LIKELY WON/T ARRIVE TIL AFT 180600Z. UNTIL THEN...CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD
BE GOOD FOR THE MOST PART.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION...JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

INZ030-031-037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072-181900-
CLINTON-HOWARD-BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-
HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-
BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-DECATUR-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
248 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY. HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING DANGERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ021-028-029-035-036-043>045-051>053-060-061-067>069-181900-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-SULLIVAN-GREENE-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-
148 PM CDT SUN SEP 17 2006 /248 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. RAIN AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING MAINLY
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING DANGERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND LOCAL FLOODING DANGERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)