Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT AND ON
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND THEN ON TEMPS ON THURSDAY.

AT 18Z WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA BACK INTO
CENTRAL IL. DRIER AIR WAS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. SCT TSRA HAD
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN FORECAST AREA /FA/.

GFS SUFFERS FROM USUAL FEEDBACK ISSUES AT TIMES THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...MOST NOTABLY THU NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MODELS
HAVE SIMILAR IDEAS AND WILL USE A BLEND.

FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH TONIGHT AS IT WASHES OUT. UPPER SUPPORT IS
WEAK...AS IS SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THUS FEEL CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
ARE SMALL AT BEST...AND WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST AFTER 00Z.
WITH DRIER AIR LAGGING WELL BEHIND FRONT...BELIEVE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS MAV LOW TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST. THUS
WILL GO CLOSER TO WARMER MET NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.
ELSEWHERE WILL BLEND THE COOLER MAV AND WARM MET NUMBERS.

ON WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO INDIANA. CU RULE SHOWS
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONDITIONS...BUT FEEL STILL ENOUGH SUN TO
PUSH TEMPERATURES TO MAV NUMBERS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.

MCS WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NW OF INDIANA WED NIGHT IN STRONG
WARM ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD STAY TO THE N OF THE FA BUT CLOUDS
WILL SPILL OVER FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
NEVERTHELESS...READINGS WILL STILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AGAIN AS 850 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 22-24C. COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD SPARK SOME STORMS. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOK TO BE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH AN UPPER WAVE.

FRONT LOOKS TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY SO HAVE ADDED POPS...MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING. AS STATED EARLIER DON/T TRUST GFS SOLUTION
INTO SATURDAY. 00Z ECMWF KEEPS FRONT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. WILL
THUS KEEP DRY FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS.

WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF KFWA TO KPIA LINE WILL
MOVE TO NEAR KLAF BY 21Z AND TO THE OHIO BY MIDNIGHT. BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSANT FEET MAY MOVE INTO KLAF AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. BUT
THESE CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY THIN OUT AS THEY MOVE FARTER SOUTH LATE
TODAY.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.  HOWEVER WITH RIDGING ALOFT
THEY SHOULD DIE OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING. SINCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE SO ISOLATED WILL ONLY MENTION CB IN TAFS AND WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW.

MODELS KEEP SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TNGT AS WEAK FRONT
DISSIPATES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOME MVFR VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER VSBYS
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS LAST FEW NIGHTS AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES LOWER.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...JEH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-191930-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
224 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006 /324 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS ON THURSDAY.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON.
SPOTTERS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ON THURSDAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)