Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 161125
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
625 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

ILC019-161135-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-060416T1215Z/
CHAMPAIGN-
625 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHAMPAIGN COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 622 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4040 8794 4020 8793 4031 8755 4046 8755
      4049 8778

$$

ILC183-161215-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-060416T1215Z/
VERMILION-
625 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY...

AT 622 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARMSTRONG...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PAXTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEOPLE NEAR THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL THREATENED...
  HOOPESTON.
  ROSSVILLE.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...HENNING AND ALVIN.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE 
IMMEDIATELY FOR HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE 
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG 
BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4040 8794 4020 8793 4031 8755 4046 8755
      4049 8778

$$

AUTEN

000 
WWUS53 KILX 161152
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
653 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

ILC183-161203-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0088.000000T0000Z-060416T1215Z/
VERMILION-
653 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN VERMILION COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 649 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4040 8794 4020 8793 4031 8755 4046 8755
      4049 8778

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
336 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WRAPPING UP ON ITSELF REPEATEDLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ON WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  CENTERED OVER THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY OVER OMAHA NEBRASKA THIS MORNING...LOW HAS MADE LITTLE
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. PRECIP IS FINALLY EXITING THE AREA TO THE EAST
AS A DRY SLOT WEDGES ITS WAY INTO THE MIDWEST.  STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE THE FIRST ISSUE FOR THE FORECAST.  NEXT ISSUE IS THE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUES/WED AND ITS
LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES.  MODELS ARE MORE THAN PROBLEMATIC WITH
THIS RUN... WENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE LONG HAUL...ADJUSTING
WHERE POSSIBLE FOR FEEDBACK ISSUES. IN THE SHORT TERM...A DEFINITE
TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLNS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SLIGHT RISK OVER THE CWA TODAY AS THE SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST.  SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD
MAINTAIN SOME WAA AND WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE SFC.  SLIGHT
COOL AIR ADVECTION AT H5...AND SOME WAA AT H7 SHOULD HELP TO STEEPEN
THE LAPSE RATES.  BUT WARM AIR AT H85 IS A BIT TO THE SW...AND FLOW
IS OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE
CHANGE AT THE LOW LEVELS.  WARMING AT THIS LEVEL MAY PROVIDE THE
ONLY CAP FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A VERY WEAK ONE AT THAT. WITH
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN...AND THE DRY SLOT HOLDING BACK THE
CLOUDS...INSOLATION WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND BREAK SAID CAP RATHER
EFFICIENTLY.  MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY.  NAM HAS BEEN MORE
EFFECTIVE IN MODELING THE PRECIP IN THE LAST 24HRS.  WITH THAT IN
MIND...THE EVENT TOMORROW DOES LOOK A BIT MORE DIRE IN THE NAM
SOUNDINGS. 00Z NAM HAD OVER 3000 J/KG CAPE...NO CIN...TOTALS OF
51...LI/S OF -11 AND SFC TEMPS AT 80F BY 18Z OVER SPI.  06Z FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT MUCH BETTER.  WHEREAS THE GFS INDICES WERE ABOUT HALF
THE CAPE...LI/S OF -8...THE SHEAR IS MUCH BETTER AND THE CONVECTIVE
TEMP ABOUT 4 DEGREES LOWER.  THE LCLS ARE AROUND 1000 FT LOWER IN
THE GFS AS WELL (GFS-2.5KFT...NAM-3.5KFT).  EITHER WAY...EARLY
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE
WARM SECTOR AT THE SFC SHOULD PROVIDE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO TAP INTO A
RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU CHOOSE.
MOVEMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE WARM FRONT (IN THE NRN TIER
OF THE CWA) WILL ONLY ADD TO LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

LONG TERM...TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A BRIEF RETURN TO THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK...UNTIL THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
SYSTEM REMAINS SLOW IN THE MODELS AND SEEMS TO BE LINGERING LONGER
AND LONGER IN THE SOLNS.  A NEW TREND IN THE 00Z RUNS HAS ALSO BEEN
TO BRING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER (AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW) ABOUT
400 MILES FURTHER SOUTH AND RIGHT OVER ILLINOIS.  THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW HANGS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...MAINTAINING CYCLONIC FLOW AND
CLOUD COVER IN THE NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERING THE DIURNAL SWING OF
TEMPS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HJS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
605 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171100-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-
MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-
COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-
CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
605 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO ILLINOIS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH WARM MOIST AIR SOUTH OF
THE FRONT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE STORMS MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LINCOLN. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL IN LOWER CASE.

AUTEN