Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Lincoln, IL

000 
WWUS53 KILX 022229
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
529 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILC017-022239-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060402T2300Z/
CASS-
529 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CASS COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY 
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4013 9051 4007 9042 4011 9032 4012 9034
      4019 9028 4020 9045

$$

ILC169-022300-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060402T2300Z/
SCHUYLER-
529 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BROWNING...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEARDSTOWN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING...BUT STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4013 9051 4007 9042 4011 9032 4012 9034
      4019 9028 4020 9045

$$

AUTEN

000 
WWUS53 KILX 022240
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
540 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILC169-022250-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-060402T2300Z/
SCHUYLER-
540 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SCHUYLER COUNTY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE THUNDERSTORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM. REMAIN ALERT TO THE 
POSSIBILITY OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER.

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGER...OR THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4013 9051 4007 9042 4011 9032 4012 9034
      4019 9028 4020 9045

$$

AUTEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
135 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST STARTS OUT ON THE ROCKY SIDE...WITH SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY APPROACHING OR IMPACTING FORECAST AREA AT ISSUANCE
TIME. THEN...THINGS QUIET DOWN FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM ONCE
THE WINDS DIE DOWN IN THE WAKE OF OUR STORM SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THIS IS
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE BENIGN PATTERN ONCE TONIGHT/S SYSTEM
DEPARTS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE/REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH INTO THE STORM/SEVERE
POTENTIAL AS THIS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED AT LENGTH IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS
AND THE EVENT IS (OR SHORTLY WILL BE) ONGOING. MAIN SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES INTO INDIANA.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FAIRLY STRONG TOWARD MORNING AS
SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND POST FRONTAL CAA/SUBSIDENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE
THIS TO MID SHIFT TO DECIDE/ISSUE. DO NOT WANT TO CONFUSE THE ISSUE
WHEN WE WILL LIKELY BE HAVING WATCH BOXES ISSUED THIS EVENING. WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS/MOISTURE SHOULD BE WITH US FOR GOOD PORTION OF
MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS ARE PRETTY QUICK TO SCOUR THE MOISTURE OUT
IN THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW. THE EVENTUAL CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY
WILL HAVE AN IMPORTANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED
BY BENIGN CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
REMAINS DECENT IN THE LONG TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION REMAINS HOW
QUICKLY NEXT MAJOR WAVE/LOW IMPACT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
REGION. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH A
FEW OF THE MODELS (MOST NOTABLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN) LOOKING
RATHER BLOCKY AND CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND HAS
INCREASED ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND ADD IT TO FRIDAY. QUIET AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

BAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-031200-
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-
SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-
CHRISTIAN-MACON-
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST
CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 300 PM
AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO
MATTOON LINE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTH OF OUR AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN
THE 300 PM TO 900 PM TIME RANGE. A CONFERENCE CALL HAS BEEN SCHEDULED
FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND MEDIA TODAY AT 1230 PM.

ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031200-
PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-
CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-
1115 AM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST
CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 300 PM
AND THEN TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND FROM 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE MIDWEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY IN
THE 400 PM TO 10 PM TIME RANGE. A CONFERENCE CALL HAS BEEN
SCHEDULED FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND MEDIA TODAY AT 1230 PM.

HJS