Severe Thunderstorm Warning 309, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
530 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF CWA
RIGHT NOW AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. WARNING ALREADY
POSTED FOR SOME OF THE STORMS SOUTH OF THE CWA.

THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH 788 TO INCLUDE THE REST OF
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70. THIS WATCH WILL GO
UNTIL 9 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE MINNESOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER...WITH AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEAST THROUGH MISSOURI AND
CURVING SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WAVE WAS EVIDENT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...WITH A QUASI WARM FRONT
EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...
A VIGOROUS LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A COUPLE
STRONG IMPULSES WERE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE
SYSTEM... THE FIRST MOVING INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI AND THE OTHER
MOVING INTO COLORADO. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN PRECIPITATION
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

12Z MODELS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT INITIALLY. HOWEVER...THE NAM
BECOMES THE ONLY MODEL BY LATE SATURDAY THAT MAINTAINS A CLOSED
UPPER CIRCULATION AND KEEPS IT IN THE VICINITY LONGER. WILL FOLLOW
THE GFS LED CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SATURDAY AND IS PROBABLY MORE BULLISH WITH
PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE THAN
REALITY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CLOSE/REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY
TOO FAR.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SEVERE THREAT STILL LOOKS GOOD AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT APPEARS TO BE THIS
EVENING AS LEAD UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST...ALONG WITH
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE/WARM FRONT. THE WIND FIELDS/SHEAR WITH
THESE FEATURES IS IMPRESSIVE AND INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT. THE UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO COLORADO WILL PASS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST MIDDAY SATURDAY...DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
ILLINOIS. THE PRE FRONTAL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS GOOD ONCE AGAIN.
THOUGH THE TIME OF DAY WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MOST OF FORECAST
AREA FROM AN INSTABILITY STANDPOINT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HIGH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN FORECAST WITH FEW CHANGES.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN WAVE
AND PULLS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL BRING MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE
TOO SIGNIFICANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET
CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODEL/ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS IMPROVING
AND IT APPEARS THAT A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION MENTION IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT PRE FRONTAL
RETURN FLOW AND FURTHER NORTH TRACK OF BEST FORCING. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY DOMINATED BY SOME DEGREE
OF TROFFING.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

AUTEN/BAK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

ILZ027>031-036>038-231200-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES THE MIDWEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE AS WELL. AS WE HEAD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT APPEARS THE SEVERE STORM THREAT
WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TRANSITION OVER TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL ILLINOIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
ONGOING IN THE MORNING...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE WIND SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. AN UPDATED HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING...AROUND 1130 AM
CDT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR
ACTIVATION WILL BE FROM 300 PM UNTIL 10 PM CDT. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-231200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-
DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-
MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-
SHELBY-VERMILION-
1058 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
STRONG AND LONG TRACK TORNADOES...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END FOR A TIME THIS MORNING...HOWEVER...AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND HEADS FOR THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND TRACK
RAPIDLY TOWARDS OUR AREA. THESE STORMS WILL INTERACT WITH AN
UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT OVER CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS LEADING TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF
SUPERCELLS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BETWEEN 200 PM AND 300 PM AND CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING IN
THE MORNING...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WIND SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR
ACTIVATION WILL BE FROM 200 PM UNTIL 10 PM CDT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL BE CONDUCTED AT 11 AM
CDT THIS MORNING.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
456 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             ASTORIA                 40.23N 90.36W
09/22/2006  M0.75 INCH       FULTON             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF MILE SOUTH OF ASTORIA.

&&

SCHAFFER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
510 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             ROANOKE                 40.80N 89.20W
09/22/2006  M1.00 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SCHAFFER